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What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Ducatista » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:26 pm

Huckleby wrote:My sense was that the recall was a tactical mistake.

...

I remember after some of the mixed results of other recalls, last summer?, Sly was musing on the radio that he thought it would be better to let Walker simmer in his juices until 2014, that Walker would become more unpopular if people saw his policies play-out. Maybe Sly's political judgement was right.


Huckleby wrote:I believe the results of this election were unknowable, most were confused before and surprised after. And speculating how this or that change of tactic would have played-out is dicey at best.

Heh.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby david cohen » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:35 pm

GordonFreeman wrote:I learned that libs are pussies. Singing songs while shaking your tamborine, get nothing done.


Agreed. It would be much better if the left armed itself to the teeth via concealed carry and used ever dime in their campaign coffers to lie to the electorate.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby pjbogart » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:39 pm

Huckleby wrote:Money didn't decide this particular election, for a variety of reasons.


I'd like to hear that variety of reasons.

Here's what we saw... In Dane County the GOTV was massive. Virtually every door in the city was knocked on. Union cab was driving anyone to the polls who needed a lift and there were a slew of supplemental private drivers as well. Walker ads were on the TV and radio, but it didn't seem that there were many more of them than Barrett ads. Certainly not 6:1, so I guess Walker's money was being spent elsewhere.

What did we get? 80% turnout in Madison, 77% in all of Dane County. Barrett won Dane County 69%-30.5%. Huge.

So, is the solution to blanket the entire State with GOTV like we saw in Madison? Is that practical or even possible? Would GOTV be effective if people had already made up their minds to vote for Walker? In other words, if you lose the campaign ad war, does GOTV do you any good?

It all comes back to money. If one television ad does as much good 100 door knockers, how many door knockers can you buy for $25 million? You can debate until you're blue in the face whether Walker's ads were a pile of lies, but in the end they delivered their message. And that translated to votes on election day.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Donald » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:40 pm

It would have been better to use the referendum on Act 10 rather than the recall on Walker. It could have happened quicker. Also, bill like Act 10 (combining budget and policy) is not possible in most states with the referendum process.

Unfortunately, Wisconsin doesn't have the referendum.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Donald » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:44 pm

Some people look at what's needed as more GOTV. I think we need more grassroots or community organizing. To be effective, it must be sustained over time and involve issues of concern to people. It must be more two-way and not driven only during elections.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby ernie1241 » Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:51 pm

Money is not the reason Walker prevailed.

Money is decisive when a candidate is unknown or when a policy issue is not well understood. In those instances, money provides the ability to inform the public and shape the debate.

Nobody seriously believes that Walker or Barrett were unknown entities. Nobody seriously believes that the policy issues were not understood by the electorate.

The real problem is the fact that (according to exit polls by CNN and MSNBC) even 18% of Obama supporters voted for Walker!

Now why would they do that? Obviously, these folks sided with Walker on the merits of the issue involved. They jettisoned their party loyalty in order to approve Walker's public policy choice--even if they disagreed with how he handled the PR-aspects

Unless and until progressives confront this reality -- future painful losses will become commonplace.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:01 pm

pjbogart wrote: It all comes back to money. If one television ad does as much good 100 door knockers, how many door knockers can you buy for $25 million? You can debate until you're blue in the face whether Walker's ads were a pile of lies, but in the end they delivered their message. And that translated to votes on election day.

I agree that advertising in general matters a lot. I think Walker's margin and scope of victory, in an election where minds were largely set before the advertising blitz, was too large to say that advertising made difference. It was a factor.
I thought Barrett was a good candidate, at least in terms of the presentation he made.
The massive petition drive was useful and direct advertisement of Walker's deficiencies.

I am not dismissing the power of money, but I don't believe that if Barrett had more advertising money that it would have been enough in this particular race.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:09 pm

Ducatista wrote:Heh.
Heh is for horses.

I'm not against speculation. Just calling for (and practicing) humility in face of tough puzzle.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:17 pm

Donald wrote: I think we need more grassroots or community organizing. To be effective, it must be sustained over time and involve issues of concern to people. It must be more two-way and not driven only during elections.


The Tea Party has shown the way.

But you know, the not-so-well kept secret is they have professional staffing and big funding behind them, too.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Twinner » Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:46 pm

GordonFreeman wrote:I learned that libs are pussies. Singing songs while shaking your tamborine, get nothing done.


I'm happy to oblige you with an old fashioned union thug beat-down. Name the time and place with enough notice for me to get my lawyer ready to meet me at the jail.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Cornbread » Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:40 pm

pjbogart wrote:I felt proud of Wisconsin but frustrated at the rest of Americans who just "didn't get it," and today I feel proud of Dane County but frustrated at the rest of Wisconsinites who just "didn't get it."

That's the myopic view of any isolated person(s). When everyone they know are just like them, then they become surprised when they run into someone not like them. ;)


But maybe I'm the one who just doesn't get it.


Now you appear to be making progress. There's a whole lotta people...say a majority of people, that are not of your political persuasion. Think about it--if there were, why all the tens of millions spent on TV ads, using nothing but emotion to try and sway them?

Leftists truly need to celebrate the diversity they all claim to want for the rest of us not like them. Funny, ain't it?
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby fisticuffs » Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:52 pm

Leftists truly need to celebrate the diversity they all claim to want for the rest of us not like them.


You could return the favor. Start by dropping the derogatory "leftist" ya fuckin douche bag.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Cornbread » Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:00 pm

Twinner wrote:I'm happy to oblige you with an old fashioned union thug beat-down.


At least you leftist democrats are consistent.

Image
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:08 pm

fisticuffs wrote:
Leftists truly need to celebrate the diversity they all claim to want for the rest of us not like them.


You could return the favor. Start by dropping the derogatory "leftist" ya fuckin douche bag.

hey, I sense an honest exchange here, a rough attempt at mutual accomodation.

The healing has begun.
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Re: What I Learned on June 5th, 2012

Postby Huckleby » Wed Jun 06, 2012 7:16 pm

For the long term, does the Democratic Party becoming less beholden to unions make it stronger?

I know this sounds offensive, I am not disrespecting unions. But the Dem party's apparent fealty to unions is a fat target for REpublicans & Independents. The attacks on public sector unions is working for Republicans right now, but this is a one-time trick, not a long-term advantage. I suspect collective bargaining is on the way out for public unions nationally.

Money is a big problem, the unions were a partial offset. But I'm guessing that may not be fatal. The unions really never had such deep pockets. Probably the manpower (OK, "personpower" Ducatista, you c.) is the biggest loss. Can that be replaced?
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