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It took 40+ years to figure this out?

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It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby David Marshall » Sun Feb 26, 2012 11:18 pm

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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby doppel » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:37 am

Only skimmed the articles, but I, and many others are always sceptical of anyone who says they can predict the future. That doesn't make one a Rebublican, no matter what you believe. Once again, from the late Reid Bryson, an early pioneer in meteorolgy and a Professor Emeritus in that field from the University of Wisconsin:

"Q: Eighty percent of the heat radiated back from the surface is absorbed in the first 30 feet by water vapor…

A: And how much is absorbed by carbon dioxide? Eight hundredths of one percent. One one-thousandth as important as water vapor. You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.

And from the same article with the above interveiw:

This begs questions about the widely publicized mathematical models researchers run through supercomputers to generate climate scenarios 50 or 100 years in the future. Bryson says the data fed into the computers overemphasizes carbon dioxide and accounts poorly for the effects of clouds—water vapor. Asked to evaluate the models’ long-range predictive ability, he answers with another question: “Do you believe a five-day forecast?”

Wisconsin Energy Cooperative News soon found six separate papers about Antarctic ice core studies, published in peer-reviewed scientific journals between 1999 and 2006. The ice core data allowed researchers to examine multiple climate changes reaching back over the past 650,000 years. All six studies found atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations tracking closely with temperatures, but with CO2 lagging behind changes in temperature, rather than leading them. The time lag between temperatures moving up—or down—and carbon dioxide following ranged from a few hundred to a few thousand years."

Science I do believe in is more like the Earth revolves around the Sun. 2+2=4. A dog has 20 toes and while a cat has only 18. Things you can prove. To say with no uncertainty what lies one hundred years ahead, is mere folly. Not drinking the Kool-aid regarding "global warming" is not as "ridiculous" as most people on this forum believe. If the ouija boards of science are so great, how come no one can predict with certainty the outcome of a one minute horse race.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby Igor » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:55 am

There are many different types of political issues. For the ones featured (global warming and nuclear power) the arguments presented by the authors make sense. However, there are also issues where scientific proof applies not very much, if at all:

- Constitutional issues, where logic may not match with the law.
- Moral issues such as capital punishment and abortion
- Issues where even experts often can't see all the unintended consequences, like tax law and economic issues.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby DCB » Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:58 am

doppel wrote: Asked to evaluate the models’ long-range predictive ability, he answers with another question: “Do you believe a five-day forecast?”

who confuses weather with climate? Idiots. And Republicans.

But I repeat myself.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby Galoot » Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:14 am

Yep. Confusing the two is akin to saying that a physicist cannot tell the velocity of an individual gas atom over the next few minutes, therefore he cannot be trusted in his prediction of the pressure of that volume of gas.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby doppel » Mon Feb 27, 2012 12:48 pm

DCB wrote:
doppel wrote: Asked to evaluate the models’ long-range predictive ability, he answers with another question: “Do you believe a five-day forecast?”

who confuses weather with climate? Idiots. And Republicans.

But I repeat myself.


The quote compares weather with climate. It does not confuse the two. I do not know if he voted for Rebublican or Democratic candidates, but Reid Bryson was most certainly no idiot.

From the same article :

"Without addressing—or being asked—that question, UW Green Bay Emeritus Professor Joseph Moran agrees that Bryson qualifies as “the father of the science of modern climatology.”

In his lifetime, in his career, he has shaped the future as well as the present state of climatology,” Moran says, adding, “We’re going to see his legacy with us for many generations to come.”

Holding bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Boston College, Moran became a doctoral candidate under Bryson in the late 1960s and early ’70s. “I came to Wisconsin because he was there,” Moran told us."+

If you are interested in a view other than your own(which I doubt), I posted the entire article in the "Re: Klimate Kooks Korrekt" thread.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby kurt_w » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:35 pm

I knew Reid Bryson. He was a nice guy. But on the particular issue of anthropogenic climate change, he simply was not remotely a reliable source, at least in his later years.

Likewise, a magazine article by a Wisconsin electrical industry advocacy group is also not an ideal source for information about climate change.

There are a fair number of scientists at UW who actually are familiar with climate science. I'd bet at least some of them would be happy to answer questions, if you approach them nicely.

I don't blame anyone for finding that topic confusing. There's a lot of misinformation out there, and unless you spend a lot of time and effort learning about it, it's very difficult to sort out what's real and what isn't. The kinds of things that doppel refers to are just such depressingly old canards ... "there's a time lag between CO2 and temperature" ... "if you can't predict the weather, why do you think you can predict the climate?" ... etc ad nauseam.

I've seen those, and pretty much every other "skeptic" talking point, about a million times. In most cases, the answers aren't very difficult. But someone needs to be willing to answer them every time, which gets tiresome.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby David Marshall » Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:53 pm

I've seen those, and pretty much every other "skeptic" talking point, about a million times. In most cases, the answers aren't very difficult. But someone needs to be willing to answer them every time, which gets tiresome


What I found illuminating in the above links has to do with the appearant futility in the last sentence of the quote above. Have a good look and tell me if this observation doesn't square with your experience.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby kurt_w » Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:00 am

David Marshall wrote:What I found illuminating in the above links has to do with the appearant futility in the last sentence of the quote above. Have a good look and tell me if this observation doesn't square with your experience.


When someone quotes one of the standard obfuscatory talking points (e.g., the "ice core time lag" thing), I know that there's a good chance their mind is already made up, and regardless of how carefully and how thoroughly you point out the problems with their claims, they're not going to be receptive.

But in a public forum, there are going to be other people reading the discussion who might not have paid much attention to the issue and who might not be committed to a particular viewpoint. In my experience those people can do a pretty good job of sorting out the information from the misinformation, but only if someone is willing and able to put accurate information out there. It also helps to be polite, and as much as possible to avoid linking the issue to partisan politics. I'm not always very good at following either of those two rules, but I do try.
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Re: It took 40+ years to figure this out?

Postby David Marshall » Tue Feb 28, 2012 10:32 pm

kurt_w, thanks I totally appreciate what you have said and agree with you. My point was not the provocative stuff but a simpler observation that threads these two articles. I work in a world where facts are treated as currency, the narrative that I am pointing out suggests that facts don't always drive our collective reasoning. This rattled me a bit and I feel shame for not recognizing this for myself. My problem is how to wrap my mind around this and find an actionable path forward (other than dispair).

October 17, 2004, The New York Times Magazine article by writer Ron Suskind, quoting an unnamed aide to George W. Bush (later attributed to Karl Rove):
The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
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