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Climate change

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Re: Climate change

Postby kurt_w » Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:21 am

bdog wrote:
kurt_w wrote:The tl;dr version

I think that's the better way to go if you're trying to change people's minds.

When I write something this long here, it's not exactly "intended to change people's minds". I wrote it because I found the topic interesting, so I did some exploration for my own benefit. Then I thought there might be a few other forons who would be interested as well, so I wrote up a description.

If it's not for you, that's OK.
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Re: Climate change

Postby bdog » Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:25 am

Gotcha.

Here's the commercial I mentioned:

gas powered everything
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Re: Climate change

Postby kurt_w » Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:56 am

bdog wrote:Heck even 2050 is too far away, too theoretical for most people to consider it with a sense of urgency.

I don't really consider 2050 "with a sense of urgency".

But in 2050 my daughter will be about the age that I am now. For the sake of argument, just temporarily assume that burning fossil fuels will make the world a significantly worse place in 2050. That's not some unimaginable time in the future, that's when my daughter will be in the middle of her career, raising a family, or whatever. This might not be particularly meaningful to you, but it definitely affects how I think about long-term issues like climate change.

Also, I do remember 1976, which is as far away from us as 2050. A lot happened in the 1970s that shaped the world of 2013.

As one example, a military coup in Afghanistan in 1978 was followed by a Russian invasion. The US responded by sponsoring a guerrilla war, using a bunch of fighters from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, and elsewhere as proxy soldiers. As the war wound down, they renamed themselves "The Base", or "Al Qaeda" in Arabic. This in turn led to 9/11, the post-9/11 climate of fear in America, the 2002 elections, the Iraq war, the Afghan war, trillions of dollars in debt, too many lives lost, and who knows what future effects.

I don't think we should live life gripped by uncertainty over what effects our actions will have 37 years in the future. But it's also stupid to think that the future will never come. It will, and the things we do now will determine what it looks like.
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Re: Climate change

Postby kurt_w » Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:04 am

bdog wrote:Gotcha.

Here's the commercial I mentioned:

gas powered everything


Thanks for the link (non-mobile version here). Very slick, very funny, and a clever concept for an ad.

I agree that if one's goal is to convince the masses on climate change as a social/political issue, that's the way to do it. Not this.
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Re: Climate change

Postby Detritus » Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:25 am

kurt_w wrote:I thought it would be interesting to look at "local" climate change rather than "global" climate change....

This is a fantastic post, kurt, both for the information & ideas in it, and for the way it demonstrates how science actually works. I don't suppose there's a way to get it put before a broader audience? Especially with your comments about the nearness of 2050.
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Re: Climate change

Postby snoqueen » Wed Mar 27, 2013 10:14 am

I think people grasp ideas best if you give them comparisons that exist within their own experience. For instance, the 1976-2013-2050 interval equivalency is comprehensible to most, even if it's just "76 was when my parents were married."

In the same way, I think a comparison of the projected climate (from whatever model you prefer) is best understood this way: the summer climate (or more properly weather) in Madison in 2050 would likely resemble what we have in (wherever) today. And where is that? Saudi Arabia? Chad?

It would never be an exact comparison due to differences in latitude, but it's still instructive.

For the optimists, we could say summers in Duluth would resemble... what? Baja California?
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Re: Climate change

Postby Detritus » Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:49 am

snoqueen wrote:I think people grasp ideas best if you give them comparisons that exist within their own experience. For instance, the 1976-2013-2050 interval equivalency is comprehensible to most, even if it's just "76 was when my parents were married."

In the same way, I think a comparison of the projected climate (from whatever model you prefer) is best understood this way: the summer climate (or more properly weather) in Madison in 2050 would likely resemble what we have in (wherever) today. And where is that? Saudi Arabia? Chad?

It would never be an exact comparison due to differences in latitude, but it's still instructive.

For the optimists, we could say summers in Duluth would resemble... what? Baja California?

I don't remember who it was, but someone (maybe the Dane County Horticulturalist) used to talk in terms of latitude within the U.S. when talking about climate change on the radio. I remember him saying a few years ago that Madison had moved to St. Louis in terms of hardiness zones, which are determined by the length & severity of winter as well as the summer conditions. That was certainly an easily grasped comparison.
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Re: Climate change

Postby Comrade » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:08 am

The Russians (who just might know something about cold) would seem to be forming opinions that are contrary to what is being discussed here.

http://www.sott.net/article/241838-Russ ... in-in-2014
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Re: Climate change

Postby rabble » Fri Apr 05, 2013 11:57 am

The Russians? Don't you mean one Russian? As in one scientist?

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just sayin so far we got one scientist with a theory. Which he came up with last year.
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Re: Climate change

Postby DCB » Fri Apr 05, 2013 12:28 pm

Would you believe a firefighter who
spent a few months in 1 place with his family talking to people.

http://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2013/0 ... ars/193443

I mean, if that doesn't convince you its a big hoax, I don't know what will.
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Re: Climate change

Postby Comrade » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:33 pm

rabble wrote:The Russians? Don't you mean one Russian? As in one scientist?

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just sayin so far we got one scientist with a theory. Which he came up with last year.


I am not saying whether or not he is right either, but NO I DO NOT MEAN ONE SCIENTIST. He is the head of a team of scientists. They do seem to be reputable and credible. If I can find further elaboration in English, I wil post it here for you.
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Re: Climate change

Postby kurt_w » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:36 pm

rabble wrote:The Russians? Don't you mean one Russian? As in one scientist?

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just sayin so far we got one scientist with a theory. Which he came up with last year.

Nah, he's wrong. He's been predicting the onset of a new mini-ice age for years now. He has a complicated story in which he predicts changes in the sun's core that will cause the sun to dim and the Earth to cool.

But astrophysicists say his claims about the sun are wrong, and if you look over the past couple of decades the relatively small changes in solar irradiance have had even smaller effects on the climate. Since the 1970s, solar irradiance has been decreasing but the global mean temperature has risen:

Image

Small changes in solar irradiance don't have a lot of effect on the climate. Larger changes in solar irradiance aren't likely on short time scales. The sun is not going out.
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Re: Climate change

Postby kurt_w » Fri Apr 05, 2013 1:37 pm

Comrade wrote:I am not saying whether or not he is right either, but NO I DO NOT MEAN ONE SCIENTIST. He is the head of a team of scientists. They do seem to be reputable and credible. If I can find further elaboration in English, I wil post it here for you.

He really isn't credible on this particular issue.
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Re: Climate change

Postby rabble » Fri Apr 05, 2013 5:11 pm

Comrade wrote:
rabble wrote:The Russians? Don't you mean one Russian? As in one scientist?

I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just sayin so far we got one scientist with a theory. Which he came up with last year.


I am not saying whether or not he is right either, but NO I DO NOT MEAN ONE SCIENTIST. He is the head of a team of scientists. They do seem to be reputable and credible. If I can find further elaboration in English, I wil post it here for you.


I think the fact that English versions of this theory are not readily available calls its repute and credibility into question.
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