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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:18 pm

Meade wrote:Steve, I believe you owe me an apology.

Otherwise, you might want to also accuse this commenter over at Kos of being in a conspiracy with me and others of, you know, "stooping to altering quotes to make it seem more favorable to your position than the quote actually is."
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/1140862/47815319#c40
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:23 pm

64.8%
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:20 pm

64.1%
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:32 pm

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 12:37 am

63.6%
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 10:00 am

63.8%

Now, I can't guarantee that Nate Silver won't stoop to altering his own already published column, but here is his latest, as of now, at 09:58 am Central Time, unaltered, and verbatim:
Oct. 6: Romney Maintains Poll Momentum
By NATE SILVER
Still, as I wrote yesterday, my guess is that the forecast model is still being somewhat too conservative about accounting for the change in the environment. In a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama’s column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama’s softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... -momentum/
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:22 pm

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:36 pm

63.3%
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 7:31 pm

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Sun Oct 07, 2012 8:03 pm

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:34 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 08, 2012 4:51 pm

66.2%

Meanwhile, Pew just released
In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/ ... amas-lead/

Commenters over at FiveThirtyEight are begging Nate Silver, propagandist, to reassure them the Pew poll can't be right. No update from Nate since last night at 8:10 when he felt forced to acknowledge a reality he and his readers find scary:
"I feel as though it’s my duty to tell you when my subjective estimate of the odds differs by a material amount from the ones that our model produces. On Friday and Saturday, I wrote that I thought the model was underestimating Mr. Romney’s chances. My subjective estimate of Mr. Romney’s chances is still a bit higher than the one our model lists officially, but the gap has closed quite a bit. [...]This is not to suggest, however, that Mr. Romney did not make tangible and important gains at the debate. Among other things, he presented himself as competent and cool-headed, and managed to shift his positions toward the center without getting too much immediate pushback for it. And he rekindled Republican enthusiasm about his chances, avoiding a potential “death spiral” trap in which Republicans began to redirect resources toward Congressional races.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 08, 2012 6:42 pm

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby kissyfish » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:56 pm

Meade,

Surely this candidate, and/or previous administration cannot satisfy your desires for government as it ought to be. Your stretching to defend them doesn't help. Shouldn't a small government be small for all?

I think you have a valid and contrarian point, but are doing no favors to your cause by being indescrimitably supportive of the right.

The truth lies somewhere more nuanced.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:06 pm

Thanks for your concern, kissyfish. I do not indiscriminately support any party or ideology. Nationally, the Democrats are in power. Locally, the Liberal/Prog/Dems are in power. In both cases, those in power want more power and more government. I come from a long American tradition which says "boo" to that.

I invite you to join me!

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