Phil wrote:Meade-why do you think Intrade is so far off the mark?
I don't. I think they are exactly on
the mark - the mark of people, from all around the world, who are speculating in a predictions market, putting their own real money at risk. But notice how, at different times, just how much fluctuation there is in Intrade markets. And when a specific market finally settles, there are real winners and losers. It's interesting to follow. Not fascinating, but interesting.
Now, as you said - there is an element of groupthink in Intrade. Democracy, in general, for good and ill, by it's nature, has strong elements of groupthink. That is partly why contrarians are valuable to a free democratic society: often times, the majority in the group is mistaken. But the beauty, to me, of a representative democracy along with the U.S. Constitution's guarantee to every state in the union of a "republican form of government", is the possibility of and the historical pattern of self-correction.
I believe the country desires a course correction away from statism and socialism. I take it you don't. This time tomorrow, I think you and I can agree, we hope to have a clear picture of what the course for the next four years will look like. Power will either change hands or it won't. And in only two years, we will have another opportunity to correct course again without violent uprising and militant insurrection.