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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:20 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:55 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:56 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:00 am

Meade do you think Romney is going to win? I think this Intrade thing is overstated. It is susceptible to group think. But you are the one who has been trumpeting it.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:21 am

What isn't susceptible to group think, Phil?

I haven't trumpeted Intrade. I've only updated Obama's numbers from time to time because it amuses and entertains bdog and few other readers. O.J. trumpeted Intrade. Why some people choose to be annoyed by my updates is a mystery to me.

Do I think Romney is going to win? Yes, I do.

But, as everyone knows by reading the polls, the race seems to be as close any presidential race has ever been. Here's what I've noticed: If Obama pulls it out, Romney voters, like me, will take solace in knowing that he will have no mandate and we will have hope that the midterm elections in 2014 will be similar to 2010 - a repudiation of statism and socialism.

If Romney just barely pulls it out, he will likewise be without a mandate. But... we will have change.

And some hope.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:30 am

Meade, you are fooling yourself-Romney if elected will revert back to being an extreme moderate.

If Obama wins he will finally get the uplift of the expanding economy. His popularity will rise. But in the end no second term presidents have much of a mandate.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:35 am

Meade-why do you think Intrade is so far off the mark?
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Slick Willy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:27 am

Meade wrote:I haven't trumpeted Intrade. I've only updated Obama's numbers from time to time because it amuses and entertains bdog and few other readers. O.J. trumpeted Intrade. Why some people choose to be annoyed by my updates is a mystery to me.

You're being coy, Meade. You update this thread for nobody's amusement but your own, and you know exactly why it annoys people, which has become the whole purpose of this thread. You enjoy the attention and ruffling feathers. If your posts about Intrade were part of a discussion, fine, but odds updates are just a way to keep this thread at the top of the pile. You get a boner when Obama's odds go down, so you pleasure yourself by posting his odds as they fall in hopes that you'll dash the hopes of the Obama supporters who post here, because you seem to have nothing much else in life to feel good about.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:32 am

Phil wrote:Meade-why do you think Intrade is so far off the mark?

I don't. I think they are exactly on the mark - the mark of people, from all around the world, who are speculating in a predictions market, putting their own real money at risk. But notice how, at different times, just how much fluctuation there is in Intrade markets. And when a specific market finally settles, there are real winners and losers. It's interesting to follow. Not fascinating, but interesting.

Now, as you said - there is an element of groupthink in Intrade. Democracy, in general, for good and ill, by it's nature, has strong elements of groupthink. That is partly why contrarians are valuable to a free democratic society: often times, the majority in the group is mistaken. But the beauty, to me, of a representative democracy along with the U.S. Constitution's guarantee to every state in the union of a "republican form of government", is the possibility of and the historical pattern of self-correction.

I believe the country desires a course correction away from statism and socialism. I take it you don't. This time tomorrow, I think you and I can agree, we hope to have a clear picture of what the course for the next four years will look like. Power will either change hands or it won't. And in only two years, we will have another opportunity to correct course again without violent uprising and militant insurrection.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Meade » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:36 am

Phil wrote:Meade, you are fooling yourself-Romney if elected will revert back to being an extreme moderate.

That will be fine with me. Just as long as his extremism is in the defense of liberty and his moderation will not be in his pursuit of justice.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Slick Willy » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:00 am

I'd respect you more, Meade, if you actually put your money where your mouth is.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:28 am

Meade wrote:I believe the country desires a course correction away from statism and socialism. I take it you don't.

Meade-was Governor Romney steering a course towards socialism when a few years ago he championed Romneycare in Massachusetts?

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:46 am

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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby Phil » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:50 am

Meade-given your confidence in Romney, why don't you put a thousand (of Ann's) bucks in the market.

Easy money. Please let us know if you do so before the polls close.
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Re: President OBAMA'S Intrade

Postby HawkHead » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:06 pm

Meade wrote:I believe the country desires a course correction away from statism and socialism. I take it you don't. This time tomorrow, I think you and I can agree, we hope to have a clear picture of what the course for the next four years will look like. Power will either change hands or it won't. And in only two years, we will have another opportunity to correct course again without violent uprising and militant insurrection.


You need to talk to Chuck Norris and Ted Nuggent about this. I think you got the R talking point wrong on that last one.
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