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Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

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Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby rrnate » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:16 am

I mean, c'mon. A quick list of challenges:

* Super-rich isn't gonna play well in a general election
* Nobody wants to have a beer with this man
* A lot of the stuff in his platform are things he has previously trashed; the "etch-a-sketch" thing was dumb, but is going to chase him around here

...and so on, and so on. I mean, seriously, which of you conservo-types even like Romney?
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Stomach » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:39 am

rrnate wrote:I mean, seriously, which of you conservo-types even like Romney?


Republicans aren't running on liking Romney, they're running on hating Obama. Its been a 3.5 year campaign at this point.

I maintain that many Republicans don't really care about the White House seat right now. They'll take it if they can get it but if they can't they'll continue to blame all of our problems on him. Some, I suspect, would rather do that anyway.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Stebben84 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:48 am

I've said it before, but Romney is the Republicans John Kerry.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:53 am

Stebben84 wrote:I've said it before, but Romney is the Republicans John Kerry.

Well, they both speak French.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:59 am

Henry Vilas wrote:
Stebben84 wrote:I've said it before, but Romney is the Republicans John Kerry.

Well, they both speak French.


Romney was for government funded health care before he was against it.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Bludgeon » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:03 am

S. Trende wrote:As I’ve noted before, elections with incumbents tend to be referenda on those incumbents, who tend to receive roughly their job approval in the end. Of course, most of the job approval numbers right now are of adults, not likely voters, which will skew them somewhat toward Democrats vis-à-vis the electorate... None of this is to suggest that the president is in great shape -- an incumbent with a 46.8 percent re-election score is clearly in trouble. I think the 54 percent chance that Intrade gives him right now is overvalued. But I wouldn’t put his odds all that much lower; he probably has about a 48 percent to 50 percent shot at winning right now.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 14583.html

Pragmatically speaking:

What motivation does any voter outside Democrats' core coalition have to vote to reelect this president? Say Obama won by 2% - what could he do to move and improve the country (even if he wanted to), without control of congress? Swing voters who want improvement are going to vote for someone who can actually get legislation through congress: a budget, for example. What would they elect him to do - pass executive orders for four years?

Meanwhile, Democrats have no way to pick up the 25 seats they'd need to take the house, and Republicans have a slight edge to flip the senate.

The white vote is certainly going to make up a larger share of the electorate than it did in 2008, while the minority vote will trail off a bit, Romney only needs 61% of the white vote to win while, for months, Obama has been winning only 35% to 39% in the horse race polls.

I wasn't for Romney in the primary but as of now I think he's got the best non-incumbent campaign I've seen since 1992, and I've been impressed by the guy in many ways.

S Trende wrote:"While many now view the Obama campaign as fallible, if you looked closely enough, it was fallible all along (as all political campaigns are). Barack Obama certainly displayed fundraising prowess in 2008, but he was abetted by a hapless opponent who chose to kneecap his own campaign when he confined himself to federal funding for the general election (and who pulled his punches, even spending precious campaign funds on a commercial congratulating his opponent on becoming the nominee)."

This isn't 2008 - its a real election.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby fisticuffs » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:11 am

a budget, for example.


It still matters what's in that budget.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby pjbogart » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:21 am

Bludgeon wrote:Pragmatically speaking:

What motivation does any voter outside Democrats' core coalition have to vote to reelect this president? Say Obama won by 2% - what could he do to move and improve the country (even if he wanted to), without control of congress? Swing voters who want improvement are going to vote for someone who can actually get legislation through congress: a budget, for example. What would they elect him to do - pass executive orders for four years?


Pragmatically speaking, if your ten year-old kicks, screams and holds his breath because he wants a new video game, you really have no choice but to buy it for him. I mean, he's never going to stop kicking and screaming so it's really your fault that he's throwing a tantrum if you don't buy him the video game.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Bludgeon » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:23 am

fisticuffs wrote:
a budget, for example.


It still matters what's in that budget.


Yes it does. And yet every other congress has managed to pass one, and every other president has managed to sign it, correct? To me, that's the very least that need be said about any national politician, if you want to be able to say he's doing his job. I can understand the desire and the duty to defend one's party; but if it was my party in this case I would have to call it indefensible. A budget, after all, is any president's most basic political statement, one that says "this is what I'm for." One of the main complaints from Democrats about the president is that he hasn't made the case for reelection. What is his party for? Why not put it down in black and white?
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby scratch » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:39 am

Bludgeon wrote:What motivation does any voter outside Democrats' core coalition have to vote to reelect this president?


A fair question perhaps, but what motivation does any voter outside the Republicans' core constituency have to vote for Romney? And concerning Obama's difficulties in getting the simplest things through Congress (like a budget, for instance), how do you factor in Mitch McConnell's kept promise to use the last 3.5 years to insure that Obama doesn't get re-elected? Seems like that's as significant and unprecedented as any of Obama's various perceived failings.

All in all, though, I'd rather have Hillary at the top of the ticket, Bubbabaggage and all. I think she'd fight harder and more effectively than Obama at campaigning and governing.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby rrnate » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:43 am

Bludgeon wrote:This isn't 2008 - its a real election.


Across the expanse of space and time, we have finally arrived at the dumbest, least insightful comment in all of Forumdom. Nice job Bludge.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Bludgeon » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:56 am

rrnate wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:This isn't 2008 - its a real election.


Across the expanse of space and time, we have finally arrived at the dumbest, least insightful comment in all of Forumdom.

Watch and learn the difference, then.

scratch wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:What motivation does any voter outside Democrats' core coalition have to vote to reelect this president?


A fair question perhaps, but what motivation does any voter outside the Republicans' core constituency have to vote for Romney?


Generally speaking, they feel antagonized by this president and the Reid senate, for one thing. They knew what they wanted from 2008 - obvious enough to say they didn't get it, but don't take my word, take the polls. These voters case against the president is clear: they didn't get what they voted for and they did get two years and two major bits of legislation that they very much did not vote for. All the signs were clear when Pelosi + Reid passed the ACA, and when the president signed it, they put the law through anyway, the public likes it less now than even then, this is just what happens.

scratch wrote:All in all, though, I'd rather have Hillary at the top of the ticket, Bubbabaggage and all. I think she'd fight harder and more effectively than Obama at campaigning and governing.


100% agree. Also, I prefer her vision of the Democratic party.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby green union terrace chair » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:06 am

Stebben84 wrote:I've said it before, but Romney is the Republicans John Kerry.

I clicked on this thread to make this very comment.

The 2004 election was the Democrats' to lose. And they chose the most milquetoast, lackluster candidate they could. It was like they were trying to win by as slim a margin as possible.

But instead they just lost.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:10 am

Bludgeon wrote:What is his party for? Why not put it down in black and white?

Are you talking about Romney? He is against any major policy decision made by Obama, yet refuses to say what he would do instead. He couldn't be any more vague about what he would do if elected.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby minicat » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:12 am

unfortunately, yes.

Walker is a bellwether for the way this country is going politically - right down the shitter.
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