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Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby scratch » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:28 pm

Meade wrote:[More bullshit. Nixon never used the phrase "secret plan"..


Far be it from me to argue the finer points of bullshit with a master bullshitter like you, Larry, but if you look closely, even your ratty little eyes may discern that I didn't indicate that it was a direct quote from Nixon. He said he had a plan, he said he couldn't reveal it, so that would almost seem to make it a secret plan. Except to Little Larry.

Meade wrote:For every lie Nixon told, his critics and haters have told a thousand lies about Nixon.


And now you can add another category: Nixon supporters and lovers who tell lies about Nixon to venerate the old fart.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby rrnate » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:42 pm

scratch wrote:He said he had a plan, he said he couldn't reveal it, so that would almost seem to make it a secret plan.


That is a crazy, wild conclusion to draw, scratch, you ol' devil. Just because it's a plan he can't talk about that will end the war in Vietnam (because of his "change in leadership"), that in no way means it's secret. I mean, Kissinger knew what it was, right?
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:59 pm

Meade wrote:For every lie Nixon told, his critics and haters have told a thousand lies about Nixon.

Your right wing revisionism is transparent. This, from someone who "resisted the draft" so he couldn't serve under Nixon as his commander-in-chief. How Ted Nugent of you.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Detritus » Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:05 pm

Richard Nixon represents that dark, venal, and incurably violent side of the American character almost every other country in the world has learned to fear and despise.

--Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail (1972)
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Henry Vilas » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:38 pm

A day after Romney made his vague statements on immigrantion to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, Obama addressed the same group:

Obama, without mentioning Romney by name, drew a sharp distinction with his challenger on immigration, reminding the crowd of Romney’s opposition to the DREAM Act, the legislation intended to put many illegal immigrant students and veterans on a path to citizenship. The bill was defeated in Congress after Republicans opposed it.

“Your speaker from yesterday, he’s promised to veto the DREAM Act, and we should take him at his word,” Obama said.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Bludgeon » Fri Jun 22, 2012 9:47 pm

Yknow just saying, this is an economy election, not a Kerry-Nixon-Amnesty election.

In 2004, the number one issue to voters was national security (I know! I was not happy about that either). Bush consistently outscored his opponent on this issue, god knows why, doesn't matter why, but its the fact. Polls were similar to where they are now but late deciders swung towards W.

This year the economy is the #1 issue to voters. On this issue Romney is consistently outscoring his opponent. The closer the election gets, the better Romney's numbers are. Any Democrats dismayed about the race today are going to be even more dismayed when Gallup and PPP switch to a likely voter model.

Romney also has a much better campaign than Kerry did, and Obama's got a worse campaign than W. did.

The immigration question, how to put this... I understand that Dems find it to be an important part of the campaign, but its... not. There is no "social redemption" campaign going on outside the liberal mind. This is not a social issues election. One wise strategy pursued by the Obama campaign is to try to stoke racial tension in the hope they can gin up at least a few of their 2008 minority votes. The wise counter strategy is also being employed by the Romney campaign: to let Obama keep arguing with himself in public about an economic non-issue that's far off the political radar. The result is an Obama campaign that's left to campaign against itself. Point Romney. To swing voters in this news cycle, all they see is a president who continues to focus on issues far outside what they prioritize in a president.

Best phrase to describe the question: false comfort, for Dems. Best topic to compare it to: the "divisive/damaging" GOP primary. In the same way that conservative voters dismiss the notion that we're any less likely to vote for Romney after the primary, we also dismiss petty fights the president wants to pick as non-stories. The less our candidate engages on them, the better. We don't want Romney veering away from his economic message to spend much time giving credence to the president.

Obama may want to take the fight into social territory in a desperate hope to find a subject where he hasn't exhausted his credibility, and with the particular hope that he can get the spotlight on demographic issues that may help salvage his candidacy. Our side is not about to lend him this helping hand.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby pjbogart » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:23 pm

Drunk posting alert!!!

Oh, Bludgeon. Democrats are attempting to change the subject by introducing irrelevant issues such as immigration reform? Trying to gin up minority votes heading into the 2012 election? You might want to take some notes, as the last gasp of a decaying baby boomer generation dies off you may find that your conservative ideals don't appeal to voters for much longer.

Republicans have an important jobs bill before them, passed in bipartisan fashion by the Senate with 73 votes, but Republicans in the House of Representatives are more interested in whether Eric Holder is withholding privileged deliberations from the "Fast and Furious" program. Or is it that poor women are receiving too many subsidized mammograms? Maybe we should re-subpoena Roger Clemens and see if he was taking steroids. Or Lance Armstrong! Create a new thread of nonsense to distract voters from the issues.

And how about that "Fast and Furious"? Clearly Obama took office, laid low on the gun control issue, ordered the ATF to sell AR-15's to Mexican drug lords so they could kill 100's of people so Obama could unleash his master plan! Attacking the 2nd Amendment, an issue he's barely mentioned in his 3.5 years in office! It's the ultimate leftist head-fake!

Listening to a Republican complain about Democrats "trying to change the subject" or "pandering to minorities" is pretty pathetic. You're the minority now. It might take a few election cycles to play out, but conservative ideals, at least in their current incarnation, are dinosaurs. I have no doubt that the Republican Party will adapt to the new realities and you probably will too, but your base is dying. Using ridiculous distractions like gay marriage or Mexicans in emergency rooms is losing its luster. It might work in 2012, and maybe even in 2016. But by 2020 you'll be frantically denying every position you took in 2012.

That is, if some gay Mexican with an AR-15 doesn't shoot you first.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby bdog » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:43 pm

Peej you have excellent grammar and spelling for a drunk poster.

I think you and I must be similar based on your critique of NPR's "hot mikes"".

Well, mostly similar. In certain ways.

Carry on.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Bludgeon » Sat Jun 23, 2012 1:41 am

pjbog wrote:"Oh, Bludgeon. Democrats are attempting to change the subject by introducing irrelevant issues such as immigration reform? Trying to gin up minority votes heading into the 2012 election."

Its only a distraction if our guy plays along, not to worry though. Dems can dangle away at "war on women" (how'd that work for Barrett?), amnesty, marraige... but at a certain point they're going to have to realize the president is just flailing desperately for a way to make himself part of the conversation.

People tune him out when he talks; he makes proposals and no one takes them seriously. How many senators voted for his budget ideas? Zero. He gave congress a to-do list, how's that going? Scratch is right, the top of the ticket would look a lot better with somebody else on it.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Rich Schultz » Sat Jun 23, 2012 4:35 am

"It might take a few election cycles to play out.."

In other words PJ realizes Romney will win, but not in 2020.

Still time to place your bet on Intrade and double your money.
Last edited by Rich Schultz on Sat Jun 23, 2012 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Rich Schultz » Sat Jun 23, 2012 4:44 am

"And how about that "Fast and Furious"? Clearly Obama took office, laid low on the gun control issue, ordered the ATF to sell AR-15's to Mexican drug lords so they could kill 100's of people so Obama could unleash his master plan! Attacking the 2nd Amendment, an issue he's barely mentioned in his 3.5 years in office! It's the ultimate leftist head-fake!"

PJ has a point here, why blame conspiracy when simple corruption suffices. It's the Chicago way.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby TeachInPeace » Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:45 am

Henry Vilas wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:What is his party for? Why not put it down in black and white?

Are you talking about Romney? He is against any major policy decision made by Obama, yet refuses to say what he would do instead. He couldn't be any more vague about what he would do if elected.


You know - this is my continual point when discussing this with friends. I feel like this is a fair assessment of what I hear about Romney's position, and to be honest, this was one of the major problems with Barrett's campaign for many voters. I voted for Barrett, but mainly out of solidarity with my family. It was never clear what the plan was - and I think that played out at the polls. I will vote for Obama, but there was a point when I was interested to hear what Romney had to say...and so far it's been nothing but pedantry regarding the poorest of the poor and hanging out in Janesville with a lot of empty nonsense about putting people back to work. I am not sure who will win this election -both sides seem tired, not like 2008.
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Comrade » Sat Jun 23, 2012 9:59 am

At this point, the race is Rommney's to lose. He knows that and is campaigning appropriately bases on that premise.

He doesn't have to make the case for himself, but rather just appear to be a viable alternative since the election is a referendum on the performance of Obama.

Obama's approval ratings are less then 50%. That is the key to the outcome. Undecideds break for the challenger in the last 3-6 weeks. If he is polling under 50% at that time, he will lose. There is a definite plurality of Americans extremely dissatisfied with the current economy and how the admInistration has conducted itself in that regard. They will likely vote accordingly. There is not much Obama can do to improve things in the few months remaining. He is likely toast .
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Henry Vilas » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:16 am

President Obama has opened a significant lead over Mitt Romney in a Bloomberg National Poll...


Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters
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Re: Does anyone really believe Romney will win?

Postby Comrade » Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:35 am

Henry, you missed the point again. That is not the relevant poll at this time. The approval numbers are far more important and are a leading indicator of the outcome. Those who do not answer with approval for the incumbent, break to the challenger in the last few weeks.

It is very much like asking the question of couples who are likely to remain married. Those that say unsure are very likely no when decision day comes. If Obama's approval ratings are less then 50% in October, chances are better then 85% that he loses the popular vote. Electoral college could vary however.

Things are not looking good for him at this time, but there is a lot of water that has yet to go over the dam.
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