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Tea Party is Losing

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:28 am

Hope and change.

We got the hope. If Obama is re-elected, we'll get the change, the nation will be committed to guaranteeing health care for all. Details to evolve. This is gigantic change. No more people ruined by medical bankruptcies. No more dispair among people with medical conditions. Working class people can see a doctor without financial sword of Damocles at their throats. Wow. This is a BFD.

The Republicans have no choice but to cave on the immigration issue. Demographically, this is absolutely the last election cycle they can afford to appear to treat illegals with cruelty, in fact they may have already overplayed their hand. A compromise similar to that proposed by Bush/McCAin will pass, sooner than later.

The tea party's concerns about the debt are entirely legitimate. The establishment of a health care safety net means that the democrats are in position to make significant concessions. Like the REpublicans on immigration, the Dems really have no choice. But cuts/taxes will be negotiated, not imposed by Tea Party priorities.

The tea party's dream of re-establishing a 1834-scaled government crashes and burns forever if Obama gets re-elected. Progressive government lives on.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby bdog » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:46 am

My asshole lives on.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:25 pm

Huckleby wrote:Hope and change.

Demographically, this is absolutely the last election cycle they can afford to appear to treat illegals with cruelty, in fact they may have already overplayed their hand.


Would it be "cruel" to say that people who entered the US illegally should be asked to leave? And if they do not go when asked, forced to leave.

I don't understand what you mean about demographics. Are you suggesting that illegals are voting?

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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Sun Jul 01, 2012 9:35 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote: Would it be "cruel" to say that people who entered the US illegally should be asked to leave? And if they do not go when asked, forced to leave.
Yes, very much so. The de facto U.S. immigration policy for years was to take advantage of the cheap labor. The illegals who have been here for 10, 20 years have established roots here.

johnfajardohenry wrote: I don't understand what you mean about demographics. Are you suggesting that illegals are voting?
No, Hispanics are voting, and they are very biased against the Republicans. Several Republican states in the WEst & South West, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, are moving into the Blue column, nullifying any gains Republicans have made in upper midwest.
If Republicans lose the Hispanic vote, they will be shut out of the electoral college within a decade.

Hispanics can easily be brought into the Republican party, BTW. They are social conservatives, plus economically conservative by nature.

Whether illegals ever vote really doesn't matter. The ticking time bomb is already there with all those beautiful, brown Democratic voters being born every day the past 25 years. Gonna explode in Republican faces if they don't wise-up quick. Hispanics may even make the difference in 2012.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby pjbogart » Sun Jul 01, 2012 10:38 pm

I always found the balancing act of Republicans and Hispanics to be fascinating. On the one hand, Hispanics are overwhelmingly Roman Catholic and very much opposed to abortion, very much supportive of traditional family structures and economically conservative, but they have that little problem of looking different and often speaking in tongues. Realistically, they should be a reliable Republican constituency, especially now that Budweiser bought Modelo, but they seem pretty dedicated to the sidelines (and I would warn Democrats not to take their votes for granted).

Republicans know they have to court the Hispanic vote, but their xenophobic constituency is their bread and butter so they end up with an unstoppable force meeting an immovable force. Do they just wait a few years for attrition to weaken the immovable force? Perhaps a balancing act is in order, propping up some Hispanic conservatives as showpieces to draw attention away from their racist base. Marco Rubio is the new JC Watts, enjoying an affirmative action ascendancy into the Republican power ranks, but he seems more like "my black friend" than a role model for Hispanics.

I would say within five years, definitely within ten, you'll see a rather dramatic shift in Republican attitudes toward Hispanics.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Mon Jul 02, 2012 1:00 am

pjbogart wrote:they seem pretty dedicated to the sidelines (and I would warn Democrats not to take their votes for granted)

Very true. The Hispanic ties to Democratic party are shallow.

pjbogart wrote:I would say within five years, definitely within ten, you'll see a rather dramatic shift in Republican attitudes toward Hispanics.

No way, Jose. The Republicans will make their about-face in 2013. The writing is on the wall, the Republican political class does not want to face another Presidential election with the hispanics so overwhelming against them (not a guess on my part, I hear the comments from Republican strategists.)

We've had a net outflow of illegals for 3 years. MExico's economy is going to grow at double (or more) our rate through the next decade. The illegal immigration "crisis" is over, can't milk it anymore.

Now the crisis for the Republicans is dealing with the high birth rate population that is already here. Even if all the illegals self-deport per Mitt's counsel, it is too late to stop the demographic change that is well underway.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby pjbogart » Mon Jul 02, 2012 7:28 am

Huckleby wrote:We've had a net outflow of illegals for 3 years.


Huck, I know that the right-wing noise machine positively loves to refer to human beings as "illegals," but it's really kind of offensive. For one, it's not a noun and referring to someone as an "illegal" makes it seem as though their very existence is somehow unwarranted. I know it's cumbersome to type out "illegal alien" but at least it describes their immigration status rather than pasting them as literally illegal people.

"Undocumented" works too.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:10 am

I use "illegals" as less offensive (to my ears) alternative to "illegal aliens." The "alien" word adds sinister quality, and one hear's it only in conservative media.

YEs, the most positive spin would be to use "undocumented workers."

I don't know, I just can't bring myself to use that phrase, even though I am 100% advocate for better treatment of, well, those people. I suppose if I were a public figure I would have to use "undocumented worker", and "African American" and "attorney" to be on safe side. But as a free agent, I go with "illegal immigrant", "black" and "lawyer."

I don't mind conceding to the opposition that the mexican immigrants are here illegally. When you say "undocumented workers", it sounds a little too precious, a bit slippery, like you are trying to fudge something. Akin to refering to your fat mama as "gravitationally challenged."
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:17 am

pjbogart wrote: Marco Rubio is the new JC Watts, enjoying an affirmative action ascendancy into the Republican power ranks, but he seems more like "my black friend" than a role model for Hispanics .

Been thinking about this one. I have heard (and believe) that hispanics identify with their home country, not with fact that their ancestors were once conqueored and influenced by Spain. What the hell does a right-wing Cuban have in common with a Mexican immigrant? Cuban-Americans come from a very specific experience.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Huckleby » Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:27 am

Image
This is a pie chart from 2000.

Here's a more recent statement:
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/hhmcensus1.html
66% of Hispanic-origin people in the United States were of Mexican background in 2008. Another 9 percent were of Puerto Rican background, with 3.4 percent Cuban, 3.4 percent Salvadoran and 2.8 percent Dominican. The remainder was of some other Central American, South American or other Hispanic or Latino origin.

About About 44 percent of the nation's Dominicans lived in New York City in 2008 and about half of the nation's Cubans in Miami-Dade County, Fla.

The point is that the cuban population is irrelevant outside of Florida.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Jul 02, 2012 8:33 am

New poll out today.

The USA Today/Gallup poll indicated 51 percent of Hispanics identifying as independents, compared to 32 percent who called themselves Democrats and 11 percent who said they were Republicans.

The poll, however, took into account each respondent's partisan leanings. The majority of the self-identified independents - 52 percent -- leaned Democratic, compared to 23 percent who leaned Republican and 20 percent who truly had no party leaning.

Among registered Hispanic voters, the level of independents fell. In all, 36 percent of registered Hispanics said they were independents, and among that group, 60 percent leaned Democratic. Only 10 percent of the registered Hispanic voters who identified as independents had no party leanings whatsoever.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby Dangerousman » Mon Jul 02, 2012 9:19 am

Huckleby wrote: The "alien" word adds sinister quality, and one hear's it only in conservative media.


... and in the federal laws.

8 USC § 1101 (a) (3) The term “alien” means any person not a citizen or national of the United States.
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby johnfajardohenry » Tue Jul 03, 2012 6:04 am

pjbogart wrote:Marco Rubio is the new JC Watts, enjoying an affirmative action ascendancy


That is the most disgustingly racist (about Watts) and ethnicist (about Rubio) garbage I have seen anywhere all year.

You should be ashamed of yourself.

Unfortunately, you probably don't even know why.

And now I'll bet you try to defend your indefensible statement.

Shame on you PJBogert you racist shit.

John Henry
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Re: Tea Party is Losing

Postby bdog » Tue Jul 03, 2012 6:18 am

johnfajardohenry wrote:
And now I'll bet you try to defend your indefensible statement.

Shame on you PJBogert you racist shit.


I really hate people throwing around the word "indefensible". I think Jason should filter indefensible to come out as "brilliant".

The "shame" part is also a yawner.

s/b "pjbogart you racist shit". Peej is very particular about people getting his name right.

and you were probably only using both of those words to mock people
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