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CNN/ORC: Romney Leads Obama, 51-43, in Battleground States

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CNN/ORC: Romney Leads Obama, 51-43, in Battleground States

Postby Bludgeon » Tue Jul 03, 2012 7:44 am

Bang.

CNN Political Unit wrote:About a third of all Americans live in states that are not considered safe Republican or safe Democratic strongholds, including toss-ups states (like Florida and Ohio) as well as states that lean toward one presidential candidate but could ultimately wind up voting for his rival. In those 15 "battleground states," the poll indicates that Romney currently has a 51%-43% advantage over the president among registered voters, if the election were held today.

"Note carefully that this does not mean that Romney will win each of those states by eight points, or that he will win all 15 of those states," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's both good news and bad news for Romney. The good news: he has residual strength in states that the two campaigns are fighting over. The bad news: Romney is also spending resources defending states that should be part of the GOP coalition, rather than taking the battle to Obama's home turf."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... se-so-far/

Not an entirely astute analysis but I'll take the numbers. From CNN's perspective I'd say they're slightly too optimistic about the president. Every four years there are states in play that were not in play the previous cycle - presidents from any party do not win the exact same states, every single time. This year Romney spends more money on Virginia than McCain spent in 2008; but Obama will have to break the bank on Wisconsin and Michigan. They leave that fact out of their analysis.

Not to mention Romney's 8 point lead is only clocked by registered voters. Likely voter polls always add an extra 2-3 points for the GOP.
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Re: CNN/ORC: Romney Leads Obama, 51-43, in Battleground Stat

Postby pjbogart » Tue Jul 03, 2012 12:51 pm

Bludgeon wrote:Not to mention Romney's 8 point lead is only clocked by registered voters. Likely voter polls always add an extra 2-3 points for the GOP.


Exactly! And only 0.5% of voters lack a valid ID. Let's just reach into Bludgeon's Bag o' Wishful Thinking and see what we get.

Realistically, Romney needs both Florida and Ohio to win. As usual, the election will hinge upon these two states. If Obama wins either one, he wins re-election.
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Re: CNN/ORC: Romney Leads Obama, 51-43, in Battleground Stat

Postby Stebben84 » Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:02 pm

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.html

4 out of 6 polls have Obama winning Ohio. It's about poll averages, not one CNN poll.
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