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So long, Joe

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: So long, Joe

Postby Huckleby » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:04 am

johnfajardohenry wrote: Like Doug Wilder. Democrat. Black. Former governor of Virginia. Highly offended by Biden's remarks, characterized them as racially offensive.

Oh, wait, he said that on Fox News.

Look!

A squirrel!

John Henry


Approximately 100% of people thought Biden's remarks were racially insensitive. IT was a stupid and awkward metaphor.

You and Fox News got hard nipples because Wilder criticism was made by a "Black." as you so dramatically declare.

The Republican outrage was not driven by "joking about slavery" as Wilder put it. You people were offended by a manufactured insult to yourselves. You made a false claim that Biden was intentionally telling a black audience that Republicans are racists who wish to put blacks back into slavery.

Biden was not telling blacks that Republicans are slave drivers. First of all, it was not a black audience, there were some black people in the audience. Believe what you will, but Biden's "you all" was not targeting the black faces in the audience. Secondly, he was talking about Wall Street Regulation. He was reacting to the metaphor that Williard Romney had introduced, that Wall Street was in chains from regulation. Smoking Joe reversed the metaphor in his mind and his lips started moving. It came out with unfortunate connotation. Embarassing and insensitive, but not a Big Fucking Deal, as Joe would say.
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby pjbogart » Sat Aug 18, 2012 9:43 am

I can't help but wonder exactly why John Henry is so convinced that the Democratic ticket will suffer some huge shakeup before the elections. Obama leads in the polls. The electoral college hardly seems to show a path for a Romney victory even if he can narrow the popular vote. Yet somehow in the next 60 days Obama will become so distraught by his poor performance that he'll graciously resign, handing the Presidency to Mitt Romney, a man who John Henry claims he does not support.

Is it delusion? Permanent residency in the right-wing echo chamber? A message from God?

A conservative buddy of mine becomes apoplectic about once every two weeks when some deal breaker of a scandal arises that will surely cause the President to be impeached. A few weeks ago it was Obama gunning down a border patrol agent in the desert. He too is convinced of the imminent replacement of Joe Biden. I suspect that sitting around listening to right-wing talk radio, surfing right-wing websites and then finishing your day with a few hours of FoxNews simply convinces you of whatever idiocy du jour they're peddling. We'll see a new faux scandal shortly, I'm sure. A mosque at Ground Zero! Interview with Obama's Kenyan grandmother! Michelle told some kid to eat more vegetables!

Republicans are under the impression that the past four years have been nothing but scandal after scandal while the rest of us stand and stare blankly at them because we don't know what in the fuck they're talking about. I've gotten kind of used to it. My canned response is, "What, did you hear that on Sean Hannity?"

Do they not recall being tricked last week? Or the week before? At what point do they suddenly realize that their news sources are making them look like fools?
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:08 pm

pjbogart wrote:I can't help but wonder exactly why John Henry is so convinced that the Democratic ticket will suffer some huge shakeup before the elections.


A few months ago I thought there might be a shakeup because the people who run the Democrat Party would realize that Obama was a loser on the ticket. I figured they might nominate someone else. I still think he is a loser but since it has not happened by now, I doubt it will will happen. One problem is there is no backup to replace him with.

What I do think may happen IF and it is a big if, Obama sees himself facing a Mondale level defeat (Walter one-state) he may just say "screw it" and quit. All his life everything has been handed to him, he has never had to work for anything very hard and he is not a good loser. At least not an experienced loser. I suspect that he would rather withdraw than lose by that magnitude.

So the question comes down to why I think he is going to lose:

Look at Wisconsin for an indicator. 4 years ago he beat Romney by 12-14 percentage points. Romney is now beating him in the polls. Statistically even, at the moment but Romney is still a point or 2 ahead.

The state has gone, in a only month or so, from "strong democrat" to "in play" to "leans repo". (For Prez, at least)

Obama is having money trouble. A year ago his folks were talking about raising a billion dollars. Now he is having trouble raising a couple hundred million. He is spending it much faster than it is coming in. He is seriously in danger of running out of money before the election.

They are increasingly sounding desperate. That smell of fear will exacerbate his money troubles. See the stories of the woman who died of cancer 5 years after her husband lost his job. The recurring story about the dog on the roof. Harry Reid's "I heard Romney fiddled his taxes illegally" and more.

People aren't buying the Medicare scare. They are buying that Obamatax will take a huge chunk of funding from Medicare.

Even though the press has been very friendly to Obama for 6 years he is avoiding it like the plague. He is now focusing on giving interviews to the likes of People, ET, local radio and other puff venues where he is asked such hardhitting questions as "If you could have a superpower, what would you want it to be?" (Answer: To be able to speak another language. Speak, not understand)

Romney agreed to a prime time interview on MSNBC. Obama wants to send Biden.

The official Demmie position is that Senate and House candidates who do not want to come to the convention are excused. That's how toxic Obama is on the hustings.

He has been having trouble filling even small venues like HS gymns for a month or two now and today we have this: “Our focus right now is on exciting our supporters and winning over undecided voters and the smaller and medium-size events are the best venue to accomplish that because the president can closely engage with the crowd." (campaign spokeswoman, Jen Psaki)

The AFL-CIO has said, officially, that they are sitting this presidential election out. They will devote their efforts to down ticket races. That is a huge loss, not just in money but in prestige and available "volunteers"

Many black churches, which are important influences in the black community, are upset about his position on gay marriage. Many non-churched blacks as well. This will probably not cause them to vote Romney in large numbers but may cause them to stay home in large numbers.

He stood up the NAACP while Romney went to their convention. A lot of blacks find that insulting. Not enough to vote for Romney but perhaps enough not to vote for Obama.

Obama is a sitting president and the best he can do is basically even in the polls against Romney/Ryan?

If you look at the polls, which show Obama about even, there are even more problems. Most heavily oversample democrats. Many sample registered instead of likely voters. This skews the poll results. Obama may be doing much worse than even.

The Bradley Effect may also be skewing the poll numbers. People may be unwilling to say that they do not plan not to vote for Obama.

If you look at the registration/deregistration numbers (let me know if you want me to post them) Repos are gaining heavily while demmies are losing heavily.

Tea Party

2010

The above list is not comprehensive and is not in any particular order. It is some of the reasons I think Obama is deep in the dumper. It is some of the reasons I think he could lose really big. Probably not Mondale big, Walter was one of a kind. But perhaps.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:23 pm

I have to start a spread sheet to keep track so let me just summarize. I have offered 2 bets, both $5. One is that Obama will not be a candidate in November. The other is that Biden will not be. The bets run til the day before election. Death cancels all bets. No payoff if either dies. Illness, real or political, does not cancel the bet.

So far I have OJ with $5 each for Obama and Biden
Stebben for $5 on Biden
Steve Volker wants to bet $100 and I have refused. I will bet $5 if he wants to accept.

Have I missed anyone?

Anyone else want in?

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:33 pm

pjbogart wrote:he'll graciously resign


I never said that. If my scenario comes about, I think he will be ungracious as all get out.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby pjbogart » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:54 pm

johnfajardohenry wrote:What I do think may happen IF and it is a big if, Obama sees himself facing a Mondale level defeat (Walter one-state) he may just say "screw it" and quit. All his life everything has been handed to him, he has never had to work for anything very hard and he is not a good loser. At least not an experienced loser. I suspect that he would rather withdraw than lose by that magnitude.


Ignoring your ludicrous "reasons Obama might resign," I'd just like to address this small point, a point that right-wing blowhards seem to have on speed dial.

A poor Black kid born in Hawaii to a single mother, grows up in Kansas, gets into an Ivy League school, becomes the editor of the Harvard Law Review, wins a seat in the US Senate and becomes the first ever African American President of the United States. But, you know, everything was just handed to him. He's never accomplished anything, really.

On the other hand, Marco Rubio, a doltish Ken doll who bounced around community colleges before he managed to squeak his way in and out of a third rate law school and was elevated to Vice Presidential material just because he could speak Spanish is, well, a true American hero. And to suggest otherwise makes me a racist.

Thanks for playing, John Henry. Go back to analyzing Joe McCarthy's heroic fight against communists and Adolph Hitler's clearly socialist tendencies.
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby Stu Levitan » Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:55 pm

Sure, John Henry, I'll take both bets.

Loser pays by check.
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby Steve Vokers » Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:05 am

johnfajardohenry wrote:Steve Volker wants to bet $100 and I have refused. I will bet $5 if he wants to accept.


If you're so sure it's going to happen, why not make an easy $100?


Chicken much?
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:29 am

Stu Levitan wrote:Sure, John Henry, I'll take both bets.

Loser pays by check.


Not donation to charity?

You sound like a greedy republican or something. :)

But sure, you're on for $5 on Slow Joe and $5 on Obama.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:34 am

Steve Vokers wrote:
johnfajardohenry wrote:Steve Volker wants to bet $100 and I have refused. I will bet $5 if he wants to accept.


If you're so sure it's going to happen, why not make an easy $100?


Chicken much?


1) I never bet large amounts of money with people I don't know.

2) I never bet large amounts of money even with people I do know and even on a sure thing.

3) While I am willing to put $5 on Obama, I have never said it was a sure thing. I said that his dropping out would only happen "if, and it's a big if" he was facing a loss of Mondale proportions.

So I'll go for $5 with you if you wish on one or both.

Not $100.

Chicken? Perhaps. I've been called worse.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Aug 20, 2012 7:56 am

pjbogart wrote:A poor Black kid born in Hawaii to a single mother, grows up in Kansas, gets into an Ivy League school, becomes the editor of the Harvard Law Review, wins a seat in the US Senate and becomes the first ever African American President of the United States. But, you know, everything was just handed to him. He's never accomplished anything, really.


I think overcoming the racism of Kansas in the 60's, especially to a half white/half black son of a single mother was an accomplishment. The other stuff? Not so much.

He didn't really grow up poor, though, did he? His grandparents were fairly well off, his mother earned fairly good money. Enough to send him to a very expensive private school in Hawaii.

He didn't do well in that school. "I was a mediocre student" he tells us. Who apparently spent a large portion of his time smoking weed and hanging out with the "choom gang" (NTTATWWT)

Yet somehow he managed to get into a highly selective college (Occidental). We don't know how he did there as a student but the little we do know indicates that he was again mediocre.

Yet he managed to transfer into Columbia where by his own bio he spent a lot of time doing drugs. Again, we don't know what his grades were or even what courses he took. I think it is safe to say that if he had been a stellar student he would be bragging about it.

He spends 5-6 years knocking about as a glorified intern on a newsletter then a community organizer. And then, somehow, he manages to get into the most selective law school in the country. It would be interesting to learn how.

At Harvard he publishes nothing yet somehow get elected to run the Harvard Law Review. It would be interesting to know how.

Back to Chicago where he works as a community organizer and adjunct instructor then manages to become a do nothing state senator (read the story of how he managed that. Not pretty). He parlays that into a do nothing US senatorship (Even less pretty. Chicago politics seldom is).

Then because he is "that rare thing in US politics, a clean articulate black man" (Joe Biden, quote from memory) he manages to get nominated for Prez where he was fortunate enough to run against a doddering fool.

If you like, we can talk about his accomplishments as Prez but we all know it is the fault of the Repos that they are so thin on the ground.,koff, koff>

So yeah, I stand by my characterization.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby johnfajardohenry » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:34 am

pjbogart wrote:
Ignoring your ludicrous "reasons Obama might resign," I'd just like to address this small point, a point that right-wing blowhards seem to have on speed dial.


Then there is this via today's Drudge Report:

Image

Newsweek? Calling for Obama to withdraw on its cover?

LBJ famously said "If we've lost Walter Cronkite, we've lost the war." Has Obama lost the mainstream media? Is that why he is focusing on People magazine et al?

I know NW is not the magazine it once was but many, perhaps most, Americans don't realize that. I am not a big fan of Ferguson either but most of America, if they know him at all, know him as a Harvard rock star professor and "Important Thinker(tm)" so it will carry some weight even if they don't read the story.

And to see this in their face at the news stand, grocery checkout and so on? No doubt it will be on TV as well. (I am sure NW hopes so)

Can't be good for Obama.

Add this and the recent Boston Globe story to my list of reasons why I think Obama will lose.

John Henry
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby Woofer » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:53 am

Isn't this the same Newsweek magazine that was calling Mitt Romney a wimp the other week? I get it now! Newsweek is in the tank for the Stein/Honkala ticket! There. Is. No. Other. Explanation.
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby O.J. » Mon Aug 20, 2012 9:59 am

Image
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Re: So long, Joe

Postby wack wack » Mon Aug 20, 2012 10:02 am

Your desperation is showing, John Henry. It's beautiful.
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