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2012 Polling Thread

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

2012 Polling Thread

Postby pjbogart » Tue Sep 11, 2012 2:05 pm

I know a lot of forons swear off polls altogether, but I think they're an interesting indication of trends and results from recent events such as conventions or debates. I usually turn to pollingreport.com for my information, it's a nice clearinghouse of a multitude of polls on a range of topics and political races. Some of you may pay attention to different races so maybe this would be a good place to put that data if the race isn't important enough for its own thread.

As of today, things are looking rather good for President Obama, but there's still almost two months to go before election day. In what appears to be a bounce from the convention, Obama is up 6 points on ABC/WaPo and CNN polls. He is also up 6 on Gallup daily tracking. Obama's approval rating is still hovering around 50% but his favorability ratings ticked up after the convention as well.

Generic congressional polling also favors Democrats, but that's usually the case and the generic polls are notoriously unreliable because many voters seem to hate all politicians except their own representatives.

Tammy Baldwin continues to lag behind Tommy Thompson and one would have to think she needs a big debate win to close that gap. It would also be nice if Obama spent some time in Wisconsin to try to give her some coattails.

Swing state polling shows Obama with an overwhelming electoral edge, but the margins in each of the states are very thin. With Romney being forced to spend time and money in North Carolina and Virginia, Obama is free to shore up his advantages in Florida and Ohio. It's disappointing to see Michigan listed in the swing State column, perhaps even more so than Wisconsin, so it's not all roses for the Obama campaign. He's fighting for at least one State that should be a lock as well.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby rrnate » Tue Sep 11, 2012 3:03 pm

Yup, political polls are totally a guilty pleasure here - pretty much every decent poll points to Obama holding a pretty narrow lead (which opens up a bit when looking at the electoral map vs. the popular vote, though it's still close).

I'm a fan of PEW for polling info - http://pewresearch.org/

This election is pretty fascinating in that so few people are actually "on the fence" still - I can't imagine what it'll take to cause a big needle shift from right now to election day. (It'd take a "Rick Perry" style debate performance or something I'm thinking.)

The Washington Post has a pretty good analysis of the presidential bid this morning that points to how Romney needs to shore up his "I'm more capable" impressions with voters, as his gap in likability is something he simply can't bridge come election day.

Obama's campaign has done a pretty amazing job of creating internet "hey, this guy is pretty cool" stuff over the last few weeks - don't expect that to die down before election day.

As for Tammy/Tommy - I'd love Tammy to win, but I can't see a path to victory for her, unless some SuperPAC comes in a swinging with some serious dirt on Tommy's Wild Years. (I don't see this happening.)
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby O.J. » Thu Sep 13, 2012 8:42 am

Image
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby Stebben84 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:14 am

I've always followed Nate Silver. He really takes a geeky mathematician approach.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... te-silver/

Polls do drive me nuts sometimes, but I still continue to follow them.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby O.J. » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:46 am

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49027437

It's getting worse and worse for Romney. It looks like Ned is absolutely going to need that Obama bombshell he promised us 4 years ago for Mitt to have any chance of making it to the White House.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby pjbogart » Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:06 pm

The polls have tightened up a bit since the bounce Obama received following the convention, but daily tracking still has Obama up by three.

Reports are that the Romney campaign is pulling funds from Michigan and Pennsylvania, understandable seeing that they were longshots anyway, but it sharpens the electoral college race into something rather familiar. Ohio and Florida will once again decide the Presidency, in all likelihood, and all of the chatter about States like Wisconsin, Iowa and Nevada are probably needless distraction. Romney is pulling away in North Carolina, which was also expected, but lags in every other swing state.

Romney had a bad week, probably a bad month overall, but he's got lots of money to spend in the final seven week stretch. Something tells me that this week is shaping up to be a bad one too, so we'll just call it six weeks.

Romney needs both Florida and Ohio to have a realistic path to the Presidency. Florida is razor thin, leaning Obama, Ohio is trending Obama outside the margin of error. The blue collar campaign seems like an effective strategy and Romney's continued focus on conservative voters seems almost like a concession rather than a gameplan. If you're still trying to shore up your base in the middle of September, it's hard to see how you could possibly win the general election.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby O.J. » Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:27 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc- ... story.html

Obama is up by 8 points among likely voters in Virginia. Is it any wonder that Ned is becoming completely unhinged?
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby pjbogart » Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:57 am

O.J. wrote:Obama is up by 8 points among likely voters in Virginia. Is it any wonder that Ned is becoming completely unhinged?


Democrats are doing quite well in their Senate races, the big disappointment being that Akin is still dogging McCaskill in Missouri, despite his dunderheaded and offensive comments about rape and his non-mainstream voting record in the House. A Romney collapse would probably be enough to put her over the edge, though.

Senate forecasts from Fivethirtyeight

Click the "Senate Nov. 6th forecast" tab on the right to bring up a list of all contested seats.

I think the Florida and Ohio races are of particular importance because strong performances from Nelson and Brown will help Obama up-ticket. Both Democrats enjoy comfortable leads at the moment.

Despite Democratic vulnerability due to the sheer number of open seats currently held by Democrats, it's possible they could actually gain a seat or two, particularly if Baldwin manages to hang on to Wisconsin's open seat. Massachusetts still looks tight, but Warren will likely enjoy Obama coattails even if Obama were to lose the Presidential election. Maine is a certain Republican loss with Angus King looking to become the third Independent in the Senate, joining Sanders of Vermont and Lieberman of Connecticut. All three are expected to caucus with the Democrats. Indiana, Nevada and Virginia are all still considered tossups.

Republicans are almost certain to pick up a few seats in Montana, North Dakota and Nebraska, though Tester is still within striking distance in Montana.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby pjbogart » Mon Sep 24, 2012 9:42 pm

Whoa! What's this? The latest round of polls puts North Carolina's electoral votes up for grabs. Politico uses poll averages to determine a State's "leans/likely" status and apparently polls are starting to trend Obama in a State that seemed largely written off to Mitt Romney. Obama carried North Carolina in 2008 by just .3% and the State became somewhat of a symbol of just how badly McCain stacked up against Obama. If you can't win your gimmes, it's hard to see how you can win a national election. But maybe southern border states are becoming more in play with changing demographics (and terrible Republican candidates).

North Carolina presents a huge dilemma for Mitt Romney because it potentially diverts resources from bigger prize swing States like Ohio and Florida. To use a football analogy, Mitt Romney seems to be playing exclusively from his own side of the 50 yard line. He can start lobbing hail mary's, but current polling puts him slightly behind in every single swing state now that North Carolina is in the Obama column, even if ever so slightly.

I'll be curious to see if either camp treats the new North Carolina polling seriously. Obama's attitude may be that he doesn't need it, so he'll instead focus on the bigger (and more likely) prizes. Romney's attitude may be that if he can't win North Carolina, the election is already over. But if Obama decides to start pushing in North Carolina, Romney can hardly afford to be seen as conceding it.
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby pjbogart » Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:47 pm

Well, the polls are all over the place, but they all agree on one thing: Barack Hussein Obama is kicking ass. Missouri and Montana have now trended to a lighter shade of pink, North Carolina is considered a toss up, Virginia and Ohio are no longer considered in play.

What's up, Indiana? Not interested in a little brown sugar?

Nationwide polls are showing Obama up 3-8 points pretty consistently, even the daily tracking from Gallup which typically shows a tighter race is now trending to a 5-6 point gap. Was it the 47% speech? The soft and respectful Obama ad campaign about America's choice? It couldn't be bigger, you know.

I see the media is trying to force this into a horserace with all of this silly talk about Libya. I can't really blame them, political advertising pays the rent this time of year, but I doubt your average American really blames the President for lax security at an embassy in Libya, nor would they fault him for playing down terrorist connections until he had all of the facts. That seems like the reasonable thing to do, no?

But we'll let them have their fun. Attempt to elevate King Douche and suck a few million more advertising dollars out of him, convincing him that he can still win this one.

King Douche
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Re: 2012 Polling Thread

Postby Henry Vilas » Sat Sep 29, 2012 11:31 am

The GOP is whining about the poll results.

While pollsters say the Republicans are griping because they are losing, the kernel of the conservatives' complaints - that pollsters frequently survey more Democrats than Republicans - is true.

But poll companies do not go out of their way to find Democrats - it is just that there are more of them on voter registers than there are Republicans and independents.

Thirty-five percent of registered voters identify with Democrats, 28 percent with Republicans, and 33 percent are independents, according to a Pew study in August.
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