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Politico: Romney takes the lead

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:01 am

James Hohmann wrote:A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a three-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before. Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May. Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 to 48 percent.


It really doesn't look like Barack is going to pull it off. His numbers got worse after the last debate. He gets up on that stage and people see two things: #1 Mitt Romney is not who Obama said he was and #2, Barack is not who Obama said he was.

It really doesn't matter who scores the most "points". When people see the president on stage all it really does is remind them that The Wizard of Oz is really just a small, withered man that's spent the last two years hiding behind the curtain. When they listen to what he really says, see how he really acts, they shake their heads and wonder how they ever thought that he could be what he claimed. But he's accomplished one thing: he's solved the age long mystery as to why LBJ refused to debate.

When he had to be more than a commercial, when the face of the presidency had to be more than just a "cool" first lady on Vogue, when the details of his character had to be filled in by more than just a fawning media - he started losing the election.

Just like that.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby david cohen » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:24 am

I think Romney has done a masterful job at lying and the Obama folks have done a piss-poor job of calling him on his lies. At the end of the day, however, Romney will be who Romney will be: either the right winger who got through the GOP primaries or the moderate who got through the general election. It is still quite possible that Romney wins the majority vote and loses the electoral college. We are a country divided, and that's not going to change anytime soon.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Donald » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:35 am

Given the voter suppression and voter intimidation efforts by the Republicans, if Obama doesn't win, this election will not be considered valid by me, and many others. I think a Romney win would be tragic for many reasons. It's the end of this country.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:55 am

david cohen wrote:I think Romney has done a masterful job at lying

What are Romney's top five lies, in your opinion?
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby wack wack » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:05 am

Bludgeon wrote:
James Hohmann wrote:A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a three-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before. Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May. Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 to 48 percent.


It really doesn't look like Barack is going to pull it off. His numbers got worse after the last debate. He gets up on that stage and people see two things: #1 Mitt Romney is not who Obama said he was and #2, Barack is not who Obama said he was.

It really doesn't matter who scores the most "points". When people see the president on stage all it really does is remind them that The Wizard of Oz is really just a small, withered man that's spent the last two years hiding behind the curtain. When they listen to what he really says, see how he really acts, they shake their heads and wonder how they ever thought that he could be what he claimed. But he's accomplished one thing: he's solved the age long mystery as to why LBJ refused to debate.

When he had to be more than a commercial, when the face of the presidency had to be more than just a "cool" first lady on Vogue, when the details of his character had to be filled in by more than just a fawning media - he started losing the election.

Just like that.


Your analysis reads like a kicker who just gave his team a two point lead but left 2:30 on the clock. Good luck with that.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:32 am

Donald wrote:Given the voter suppression and voter intimidation efforts by the Republicans, if Obama doesn't win, this election will not be considered valid by me, and many others. I think a Romney win would be tragic for many reasons. It's the end of this country.

Are voter suppression and intimidation efforts causing the shift in the polls that favor Romney?
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Ned Flanders » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:54 am

It's clear to most that Obama's first vetting has occured 3.75 years into his term: at the debates, based on his handling of the Libyan crisis and the Arab "Spring". That said, the Chicago Gang has plenty of tricks up their sleeves and a two-week window to mobilize. The LSM is still complicit and the swelling welfare roles are ready to vote to keep their "Obama-phones" and "Obama-cash".

This is far from over.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby wack wack » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:04 am

Meade wrote:
Donald wrote:Given the voter suppression and voter intimidation efforts by the Republicans, if Obama doesn't win, this election will not be considered valid by me, and many others. I think a Romney win would be tragic for many reasons. It's the end of this country.

Are voter suppression and intimidation efforts causing the shift in the polls that favor Romney?


The polls are not valid, conservatives declared that weeks ago. Please try to keep up.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Stomach » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:35 am

Ned Flanders wrote:...Chicago Gang has plenty of tricks up their sleeves and a two-week window to mobilize. The LSM is still complicit and the swelling welfare roles are ready to vote to keep their "Obama-phones" and "Obama-cash".


Its early Monday morning and we already have a "Chicago style politics", "liberal media" and "welfare for votes" reference. Its going to be a great week!
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby DCB » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:57 am

Meade wrote:
david cohen wrote:I think Romney has done a masterful job at lying

What are Romney's top five lies, in your opinion?

Don't fall for his trolling, David! Let's not argue amongst ourselves about which lies are in the top 5, and let's all agree that
"He's just casting off from his moorings and being what he basically is at heart, which is a salesman and bullshit artist of the highest order," the Rolling Stone contributing editor wrote of Romney in a blog post Friday.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby doppel » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:50 am

Donald wrote:Given the voter suppression and voter intimidation efforts by the Republicans, if Obama doesn't win, this election will not be considered valid by me, and many others. I think a Romney win would be tragic for many reasons. It's the end of this country.


Well woooooe is us, Mr. Drama King. If Romney "wins" (nudge-nudge wink-wink, know what I mean?), we can't possibly go on. Better make enough Kool-aid for everyone, with extra doses for the children so you'll be sure they won't have to witness the horror that the future will bring.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Meade » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:01 am

Tax plans aren’t just about math
It’s worth emphasizing just how low a bar the Romney plan is being asked to clear. The question the Tax Policy Center asked was whether it’s mathematically possible to do all the things Romney says he wants to do. But even if it were mathematically possible, it may not be politically possible or substantively wise.
All of the above analyses assume that Romney totally eliminates the charitable deduction, mortgage-interest deduction, all education tax breaks, all state and local tax deductions the employer-provided health care exemption, all Health Savings Account and medical expenses deductions, and more for people making over $200,000. Even if TPC is wrong, you’d probably have to limit them for people making under that amount too, so middle-class people pay the same amount when you take into account the rate cuts.
These are enormous changes. Eliminating the charitable deduction for the rich could effectively wipe out funding for thousands of charitable, artistic, and educational institutions. Small theaters could shut down. Anti-malaria groups would buy fewer bednets. Private colleges would lose donations, and hike up tuition to make up the difference, even as tuition deductions and credits are eliminated. In 2009, when President Obama proposed simply limiting the charitable deduction at the to end, Martin Feldstein, author of the first study trying to show Romney’s plan could work, wrote, “in effect, the change would be a tax on the charities, reducing their receipts by a dollar for every dollar of extra revenue the government collects. It is hard to imagine a rationale for taxing schools, hospitals, medical research budgets and arts organizations in this way.”
Eliminating the mortgage-interest deduction would upend the housing sector, reducing demand to buy dramatically and shifting the sector toward renting. Eliminating the employer health exemption could mark the beginning of the end of the employer-based health system as we know it.
Perhaps these are good ideas. Many countries’ tax codes are less tolerant of charitable contributions than the US and make up for that with direct artistic and educational subsidies. The mortgage-interest deduction arguably fueled the housing bubble. The employer-based health care system keeps people from moving freely between jobs, and ending the exemption that keeps it in place could do a lot of good. But these aren’t just technical changes. They’re transformative shifts in American public policy. And the debate over whether they would make Romney’s plan possible has obscured the debate over whether they’re a good idea, or likely to happen. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezr ... -tax-plan/


Change and hope.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby massimo » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:17 am

It amazes me that people consider popular vote AT ALL. We don't elect our president based on popular vote, just like we don't award victories in the NFL to the team with the most total yards. It's about electoral college votes and total points.

But go ahead, take solace in your "lead". The rest of us know that your guy is still down by two scores and we're about to hit the two-week warning.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Slick Willy » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:22 pm

I'm pretty honest with myself about these things, because cheerleading on The Daily Page isn't going to change anything. Obama has more at risk, but he's not exactly behind. The states that are red are dark red. The tossup states are almost all leaning toward Obama, but there are so many that anything could happen come election day. Obama could easily win the electoral votes he needs and lose the popular vote, and if he wins the election, I'm almost sure this will happen. Of course Romney supporters will be screaming bloody murder and want to change the electoral college. It'll be a much worse fallout than when Bush beat Gore in 2000.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby kurt_w » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:04 pm

Slick Willy wrote:Obama could easily win the electoral votes he needs and lose the popular vote, and if he wins the election, I'm almost sure this will happen.


It's worth noting that a lot of people expected a similar outcome in 2000 (Gore wins the EC, Bush the popular vote) but the reverse actually happened. As election day approached, the Bush team had already begun planning a campaign to contest the legitimacy of the results if their candidate won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College.

I hope we don't have a 2000-style split election. If Romney won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College by a few votes, I'd expect endless ranting from the GOP about vote fraud and how this wasn't at all equivalent to 2000 because Bush won fair and square in 2000 but Obama's "victory" in 2012 was just cheating. If the reverse happened, I'd expect Democrats to be understandably furious about having a second election stolen from them in only 12 years, and to complain bitterly about Diebold, voter suppression, and other GOP wrongdoings both real and imaginary.
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