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Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby kurt_w » Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:27 am

West Virginia Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller isn't going to run in 2014.

The senate is shaping up to be a really, really tough challenge for the Democrats in that election. They're defending 20 seats, including 7 in states that Mitt Romney won this fall. The Repubs are only defending 13 seats, and only one in a state that Obama won. Worse yet, that one is Maine's Susan Collins, who despite being a Republican in a blue state is almost unbeatable. Given that she won in a landslide in the great Democratic year of 2008, I don't see how she can lose in a GOP-friendly off year. (Unless the Teapers knock her out in the primary, which seems improbable but one never knows).

So it won't be surprising if the Democrats lose at least 7 seats, possibly more, and the GOP doesn't have a single loss.

Revenge will come in 2016, though, when the GOP is defending a massive pile of seats, including a bunch in blue states.
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Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby Mad Howler » Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:47 am

wack wack wrote:It seems like part of Obama's plan for a second term involves campaigning all the time: taking every issue directly to the people. Perhaps he's decided the way to break the midterm down cycles is to keep the electorate up all the time.

I have kind of taken him at his word when he has stated "make me do it". Perhaps he is a better a cheerleader than GW (who would of thought that possible?).

wack wack wrote:It's hard for me to imagine the ideas of "tradition" and "precedent" in politics being any less relevant than they are right now. Not irrelevant, but less relevant predictors than ever before. It's as new a political wold as has ever existed in my lifetime.

This stacks up with my experience/perception. I am excited as well as apprehensive regarding these observations.
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