MOBILE USERS: m.isthmus.com
Connect with Isthmus:         Newsletters 
Wednesday, November 26, 2014 |  Madison, WI: 20.0° F  Fog/Mist
Collapse Photo Bar

Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby kurt_w » Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:27 am

West Virginia Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller isn't going to run in 2014.

The senate is shaping up to be a really, really tough challenge for the Democrats in that election. They're defending 20 seats, including 7 in states that Mitt Romney won this fall. The Repubs are only defending 13 seats, and only one in a state that Obama won. Worse yet, that one is Maine's Susan Collins, who despite being a Republican in a blue state is almost unbeatable. Given that she won in a landslide in the great Democratic year of 2008, I don't see how she can lose in a GOP-friendly off year. (Unless the Teapers knock her out in the primary, which seems improbable but one never knows).

So it won't be surprising if the Democrats lose at least 7 seats, possibly more, and the GOP doesn't have a single loss.

Revenge will come in 2016, though, when the GOP is defending a massive pile of seats, including a bunch in blue states.
kurt_w
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5281
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby Mad Howler » Sat Jan 12, 2013 12:47 am

wack wack wrote:It seems like part of Obama's plan for a second term involves campaigning all the time: taking every issue directly to the people. Perhaps he's decided the way to break the midterm down cycles is to keep the electorate up all the time.

I have kind of taken him at his word when he has stated "make me do it". Perhaps he is a better a cheerleader than GW (who would of thought that possible?).

wack wack wrote:It's hard for me to imagine the ideas of "tradition" and "precedent" in politics being any less relevant than they are right now. Not irrelevant, but less relevant predictors than ever before. It's as new a political wold as has ever existed in my lifetime.

This stacks up with my experience/perception. I am excited as well as apprehensive regarding these observations.
Mad Howler
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1430
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:36 pm

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby kurt_w » Fri Oct 17, 2014 10:14 am

Bump to keep this thread from getting deleted in Isthmus's periodic housecleaning.

Right after the 2012 election I posted this prediction (see below) ... and so far, everything seems to be proceeding as expected.

The GOP will take over the Senate, but only for two years. Then they'll overreach and 2016 will be a disaster for the GOP, as they lose the Senate (defending 24 seats vs the Ds' 10 seats, an even more lopsided playing field than this year's) ... and lose the White House. In 2018 they'll rebound a bit in the Senate.

kurt_w wrote:2014: This will be a big year for Republicans. Traditionally the party holding the White House loses seats in Congress in its 6th year. The Democrats also tend to be less successful at turning out their base voters in off-year (non-presidential) elections. Republicans have an advantage due to gerrymandering of district boundaries following the 2010 census, which happened to coincide with a big Republican election year, giving them an unnatural advantage in state legislatures. And, finally, it's six years after 2008, which was a great year for Democrats -- so a lot of Democratic senators will be up for re-election in 2014 (Ds will be defending 20 seats, Rs only 13). There's a good chance the Democrats will lose the senate, particularly with seats in risky states like Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia, and West Virginia in play. All in all, it's a perfect storm battering the Democrats.

But as we saw in 1994 and again in 2010, the buildup to an off-year election can drive the Republicans far to the right, and success in that election can make them over-reach, leading to ...

2016: A rebounding economy, the popularity of outgoing President Obama, and backlash against the even-more-radical post-2014 Republicans gives the Democrats the White House for another four years, as voters who stayed away from the polls in 2014 turn out again. The Republicans also lose badly in the Senate, due to both coattails from the Presidential race and the fact that 2016 is the sixth year after 2010 ... so the GOP is defending a whopping 24 senate seats to the Democrats' 10, an even more lopsided situation than the previous election's. Among the endangered GOP senators are those in Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania ... and Wisconsin.

After losing three consecutive Presidential elections, the Republicans are finally ready to moderate a bit. The economy continues to grow modestly, and neither party seems to have a big advantage...

2018: Once again, the Republicans do well in the off-year election, with the lingering effects of 2010's redistricting combining with the opportunity to pick off Democratic senators -- including several who were elected in improbable states during the Republican senate disaster of 2012. (Likely GOP targets include Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Virginia, and Florida).

Well, there you have it -- the winners and losers of the next three elections. After that, my crystal ball gets a bit foggy.
kurt_w
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5281
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby Polka_Tulk » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:10 pm

You have left out the winner of almost all U.S. elections, "none of the above." As for 2016, it looks like the Democrats are in the same spot as the Republicans were after Bush.
Polka_Tulk
Senior Member
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:19 am

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby kurt_w » Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:23 pm

Polka_Tulk wrote:You have left out the winner of almost all U.S. elections, "none of the above."

Except that "none of the above" always loses. If 50% don't vote, 26% vote for Party A and 24% vote for Party B, then Party A wins. Whether anyone likes it or not, that's how the current electoral system operates.

Polka_Tulk wrote: As for 2016, it looks like the Democrats are in the same spot as the Republicans were after Bush.

The Democrats will do fine in 2016. It's 2014 and 2018 they need to worry about.
kurt_w
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 5281
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Kurt's crystal ball for future elections

Postby Polka_Tulk » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:15 pm

kurt_w wrote:The Democrats will do fine in 2016. It's 2014 and 2018 they need to worry about.

Losing the Senate is the plan. Then two more years of whining about the Republicans while their neocon owners finish looting the country.
Polka_Tulk
Senior Member
 
Posts: 57
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:19 am

Previous

Return to National Politics & Government

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

moviesmusiceats
Select a Movie
Select a Theater


commentsViewedForum
  ISTHMUS FLICKR
Created with flickr badge.

Promotions Contact us Privacy Policy Jobs Newsletters RSS
Collapse Photo Bar