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97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby minicat » Fri May 17, 2013 4:33 pm

What is your message that needs to be argued against, exactly?

I still posit that you should stop hitting yourself on the head before you post. I'm just thinking about your personal safety here.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Fri May 17, 2013 4:37 pm

minicat wrote:What is your message that needs to be argued against, exactly?

I still posit that you should stop hitting yourself on the head before you post. I'm just thinking about your personal safety here.


No you are trolling and flaming.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Fri May 17, 2013 6:24 pm

Explaining climate change science & rebutting global warming misinformation

Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to improve their understanding. Yet this isn't what happens with climate change denial. Skeptics vigorously criticise any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet embrace any argument, op-ed, blog or study that purports to refute global warming. This website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?


From http://www.skepticalscience.com/

This is the group that came up with the 97% number.

Isn't there a conflict of interest here?

I wouldn't trust a study produced by an oil company either.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Huckleby » Fri May 17, 2013 7:45 pm

dp
Last edited by Huckleby on Fri May 17, 2013 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Huckleby » Fri May 17, 2013 7:53 pm

If you want to probe for chinks in the armor of the study, scrutinize here:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article
.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Meade » Fri May 17, 2013 8:07 pm

5. Conclusion
The public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW is a necessary element in public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). However, there is a significant gap between public perception and reality, with 57% of the US public either disagreeing or unaware that scientists overwhelmingly agree that the earth is warming due to human activity (Pew 2012).

I wonder why their conclusion targets only the ignorant US public. Nothing about the ignorant Chinese public, the ignorant Indian public, or the ignorant Russian public.
Hmm.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Huckleby » Fri May 17, 2013 8:14 pm

bdog wrote: http://www.skepticalscience.com/

This is the group that came up with the 97% number.

Isn't there a conflict of interest here?

I wouldn't trust a study produced by an oil company either.


That is a personal site by the guy who headed the study.

There have been several large literature searches. They all confirm the trend towards consensus. They publish their methodologies. People who believe they are crooked can challenge them. A 2010 survey also arrived at a 97% figure. Back in the 1990's the consensus was more like 75%.

IF these studies are crooked, where are the literature surveys that contradict these studies? It is not hard to do a literature survey, surely the global warming skeptics could run their own study if there was any value in it to them.

No, skeptics rely on conspiracy theories - the fix is in with the scientific literature.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Bludgeon » Fri May 17, 2013 8:19 pm

Huckleby wrote:This is not breaking news, but it is good to take notice as the scientific consensus on global warming edges up.

The hardcore GW deniers will argue that the measure of consensus, publications in peer-reviewed journals, is biased by government funding around the world - you don't get grants renewed when you report "nothing to see here." I will generously concede there is a sliver of truth to this argument. But bigger truth is that it's all over but the weaseling for GW deniers.

Offense not intended, but I don't really believe in man made climate change. To me warmists are like sky-worshipers, always pointing to the hurricanes and hot days looking for affirmation. Wanting to explain and anthropomorphize the frightening things in nature with a comforting link to human action; because 'if it can be caused by us, it can be stopped by us'. When we do something good the sky gods are happy, right? I realize there's a field of science linked to it. For me the validity of their science all comes down to the short span of our real temperature record. Using only thermometers (not reading tree rings or ice samples), we have a bare 100-ish years of global temperature records; a bare 50-ish years of reliable satellite data. In my opinion, whatever we say about CO2, we actually know almost nothing concrete about what the climate was like as recently as 200 years ago. How many hurricanes hit the gulf coast in the year 1757? We have no idea. What was the temperature in Minneapolis on this day in the year 1696? Unknown.

I tend to see the basic elements of a religion increasingly attributable to the theory of man-made climate change; where every piece of datum is evidence that 'god' exists and/or global warming's getting hotter. The whole idea of a worldwide apocalypse if mankind doesn't 'change its ways...' Then I interact with a lot of people who really, really believe this and find they're backing up their arguments with the notion of consensus, rather than a detailed argument. To me, I think we've begun to indulge in wild prediction making on the basis of just the smallest bit of data.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Meade » Fri May 17, 2013 9:12 pm

Huckleby wrote:It is not hard to do a literature survey, surely the global warming skeptics could run their own study if there was any value in it to them.

No, skeptics rely on conspiracy theories - the fix is in with the scientific literature.

"Surely"? Surely doesn't sound very scientific.
Oreskes believes that the public isn't aware of the consensus because of deliberate efforts to cause confusion. "There has been a systematic attempt to create the impression that scientists did not have a consensus, as part of a broader strategy to prevent federal government action," Oreskes said. "The public have been confused because people have been trying to confuse us."

Talk about being prone to conspiracy theory thinking!
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Fri May 17, 2013 9:18 pm

The whole idea of a "literature study" is ridiculous. Why didn't they ask the scientists who originally did the literature what they think? Have them all sign affidavits and count the yeas and nays. Then let me know the results.

The only methodology this guy seems to have is calling laymen "citizen scientists".
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Fri May 17, 2013 10:29 pm

bdog wrote:The whole idea of a "literature study" is ridiculous. Why didn't they ask the scientists who originally did the literature what they think? Have them all sign affidavits and count the yeas and nays. Then let me know the results.

The only methodology this guy seems to have is calling laymen "citizen scientists".

Studying, in the aggregate, what previous studies have found is a perfectly legitimate approach. "Meta-studies" is what they're usually called, but "literature study" is a fine term, too. There would be no point in "asking the scientists what they think," since their judgement is already displayed in their publications.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Sat May 18, 2013 6:48 am

Detritus wrote:There would be no point in "asking the scientists what they think," since their judgement is already displayed in their publications.

I bet the judgements displayed are not always black and white. The methodology as I understand it is to go through the papers and look for key phrases. To do a fair judgement on this metastudy I would need to see the original papers, what phrases were pulled from them and their context, and then judge for myself whether they got it right by reading the papers myself. Better yet, ask the paper's author(s) if they got it right. Obviously I can't do this with 12000 papers but it probably wouldn't take many to see if the method held up.

I would also have to research the paper writers and throw out any riff raff.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Sat May 18, 2013 7:20 am

Actually weeding out the riff raff would be step 1.

Then I would rank the papers with a weight. No not me, I would get someone like Kurtw to rank them with a weight.

Then give each of the papers a positive, negative or neutral rating.

And then I would add up the weights in each category and compare the results.

The "study" in question started with 12000 papers and got it down to 4000 that expressed an opinion. They say 97% of those 4000 say global warning is man made. It doesn't mean much if Kurtw assigned those papers low weights. I.e., if the big hitters in the climate change studies were all thrown out in the 8000 papers that did not express an opinion, then the 97% number is extremely misleading.

It is a propaganda campaign, nothing more. It doesn't prove anything.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Huckleby » Sat May 18, 2013 7:52 am

bdog wrote: I bet the judgements displayed are not always black and white .... I would also have to research the paper writers and throw out any riff raff.

The papers are all published in the club of peer-reviewed academic journals, so you wouldn't be calling any of them riff-raff. You have to stick with some sort of objective standards, flawed as they might be.

You make a fair point, the methodology could be biased, in fact it's bound to be biased, both by the imprecision of the standards and the subjectivity of the graders.
It would be interesting to see what results a literature survey by skeptics would produce. But it's even more telling that they never bothered to do one.

Two facts to focus on:
1) There have been other studies, and they corroborate each other.
2) If you look within this latest very large study, it's obvious that the consensus has been rising year-to-year for two decades. Since the methodology is applied consistently, this is highly significant.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Sat May 18, 2013 7:58 am

Well this study also "proves" that 2/3 of scientists have no opinion on the cause of global warming.

I just don't think this is going to be a very effective campaign.
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