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97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:45 pm

Could be Paul Ryan after today's news.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:16 pm

bdog wrote:Could be Paul Ryan after today's news.

Yep. Actually even before this I've been figuring that Ryan will probably be the frontrunner for the nomination in '16.

Scott Walker is also a good example of an anti-Elizabeth Warren, in that he has a fervent following among the GOP base while infuriating the Democratic base. Same as Warren in reverse.

Come to think of it, it'd be hard to beat a Walker vs Warren contest, for excitement and motivation on both sides. One could even come up with a plausible scenario:

In 2016 the R's nominate Ryan, with Walker as his running mate. The D's expect to hand Hillary the nomination but for whatever reason (health, maybe) she doesn't run, and Biden gets it by default. Biden wins, serves just one term and doesn't run for re-election due to age/health. Then we're set up for Walker vs Warren in 2020.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:30 pm

Scott Walker will never make it through a Presidential Primary. The power brokers are holding literally hundreds of millions of dollars and they're looking to bet on a winning horse. If they have any reason to believe that some scandal or old skeleton will sink their nominee they're going to look elsewhere. What if they get stuck with Walker and then the intense vetting process turns up credible criminal conspiracy allegations? Do you have any idea how expensive it would be to shut up the people going to jail for Walker if he got a Presidential nomination? Even if you operate on the assumption that Walker has managed to stay above the fray thus far, no one is going to throw hundreds of millions at a guy who seems so vulnerable.

It won't happen.

Ryan has been vetted. Other than being a colossal douchebag, he seems on the up and up.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby snoqueen » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:55 pm

I am amused with how he's started saying his interest in Ayn Rand is "an urban legend."

Everyone deserves a chance to grow up and leave stuff behind, even someone in public office. Still, I might be more impressed if he just said he was a fan of Rand when he was in college but has learned a lot since then, or gave some other explanation showing a bit of self-awareness.

I would have liked being a fly on the wall during his negotiations with Patty Murray, who's been around long enough to see more than one bright young elected official encounter the real world of politics.

I don't for a minute like or trust Ryan, but he's playing the game a lot smarter than Walker has been playing. For starters, Ryan has managed to realize the Tea Party is dead and having the Koch brothers on your resume isn't necessarily an asset. Walker, with his innate and unconcealed sleaze factor, isn't going anyplace, any more than Wisconsin is going anyplace (except to hell) under his leadership.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:06 pm

With all due respect, you guys are looking at Walker from your perspective as progressives in Wisconsin, rather than as Republicans outside Wisconsin. You need to force yourself to think like one of them.

If some partisan liberal DA is on some kind of fishing expedition to persecute Scott Walker, that's just more evidence that the partisan liberal Democrats will go to any length to stop him, and that in turn means that we Real Americans need to support him even more.

Republicans hate, hate, hate unions. For public employee unions, add a couple more hates in that sentence. If there's one single thing that Walker's known for outside Wisconsin, it's sticking it to the public employee unions. That's all most people out here in non-Badgerland know, and that's all the Repubs need to know.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Wed Dec 11, 2013 11:34 pm

Sorry Kurt, but you're wrong on this one. Yeah, primary voters will flock to a union-busting Tea Party favorite and Scott Walker certainly fits the bill. But the Republican Party is still tenuously controlled by business interests, and they may be evil but they're not stupid. Mitt Romney was the 2012 nominee because he was approved by corporate America, as was Barack Obama.

Scott Walker is a longshot, and his horse came out with a bit of a limp. That's not a good bet. Now, I assume that your response is that ALL of the Republican candidates have a bit of a limp, but I think Scott Walker's is more visible. They won't bankroll that candidacy unless they have no choice.

If the Republican "powers that be" want a governor from a blue State, they'll take Chris Christie (who has decent Democratic support) or John Kasich (because Ohio is such a critical State). Dark horse gubernatorial candidates would be Rick Snyder of Michigan, Rick Scott of Florida (has similar problems to Walker) and Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

In that order.

If the Tea Party wins the fistfight for control of the Republican Party, look to Ted Cruz of Texas or even the shocking nomination of Darrell Issa of California, largely because you can hardly name a more aggressive Obama critic than Darrell Issa. He also has a lot of skeletons in his closet, but if the Tea Party shocks us by trumping the moneyed interests, they make look for a loyal warrior and Darrell Issa certainly fits that bill.

Basically, I think that Scott Walker has a ghost of a chance to win the nomination. His negatives are too high and his positives are eclipsed by other potential gubernatorial candidates like Kasich or Snyder.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Thu Dec 12, 2013 12:05 am

pjbogart wrote:Ryan has been vetted. Other than being a colossal douchebag, he seems on the up and up.

I think you meant to say:
He's been vetted, he seems on the up and up, and as a bonus (for the GOP), he's a colossal douchebag.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:41 am

Walker is too goofy looking for a Presidential bid.

Think:

Image

Both sides need a woman, and/or a minority.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:51 pm

pjbogart wrote:Sorry Kurt, but you're wrong on this one. Yeah, primary voters will flock to a union-busting Tea Party favorite and Scott Walker certainly fits the bill. But the Republican Party is still tenuously controlled by business interests, and [...]

Let me rewrite the end of that sentence: and there's nothing business interests hate more than taxes and unions.

I'm not saying Walker would be the nominee or even run. I'm just saying that for a lot of the GOP base he's one of the names that's best known for getting into high-profile fights with Democrats on issues the base cares about.

I think Ryan is the likely frontrunner on the GOP side in 2016. Kasich seems like one of those who looks good on paper but will never catch fire. Nobody is going to vote for Rick Scott. I don't know enough about Snyder to speculate there, but that fact kinda makes me think he's not in the running.

So. A handful of midwestern white guys.

The non-white guy field is a bit thin on the GOP side. Bobby Jindal managed rather spectacularly to turn himself into a joke in a single short speech, and has royally screwed up his governance of Louisiana (which is saying a lot if you know Louisiana). From time to time someone makes the claim that Ben Carson would be a viable candidate; I can't decide whether that's more hilarious or cute in its naivete.

Bdog says the GOP needs a woman. I think there are four GOP women governors (Brewer, Fallin, Haley, and Martinez). There are four senators (Ayotte, Collins, Fischer, and Murkowski). There are a bunch of mostly unknown representatives. And I suppose one could throw in a few businesswomen (though people with no political experience rarely go far), former cabinet members, etc.

I think the only one of those with a national reputation is Jan Brewer, and maybe sorta Nikki Haley. I'm dubious about the GOP nominating a woman in 2016, but am open to convincing.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:54 pm

Bdog, who would you vote for in a hypothetical 2016 GOP primary? Who would you be excited about voting for?
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby bdog » Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:55 pm

I'd be excited for Christie but he's gotta lose weight.

And yes I think he needs a female running mate. I still think Hillary is unbeatable if she is in good shape.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby fennel » Thu Dec 12, 2013 6:45 pm

bdog wrote:I'd be excited for Christie but he's gotta lose weight.
If you're speaking metaphorically, I have to agree. He is insulated from reality by thick layers of wealth-based perspective. It's the worst kind of adipose tissue, as far a the well-being of the governed is concerned.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Fri Dec 13, 2013 2:14 pm

DCB asked us to move the presidential speculation to another thread. So, back on climate change... and hurricanes:

(1) New paper by MIT's Kerry Emanuel finds that downscaled models predict more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes over the 21st century.

(2) Another new paper looks at actual hurricanes over the past four decades, and finds that global warming causes a shift towards higher-intensity hurricanes (a slight decrease in category 1-2 storms, and an increase in category 4-5 hurricanes). They also suggest (based on modeling) that there is an upper limit to this effect; so hurricanes may continue to strengthen for several decades before "maxing out".

Of course, even if storms do not become significantly more intense or more frequent, rising sea level will make them far more expensive when they make landfall near large coastal cities. Think Hurricane Sandy. When a storm surge is right on the edge of flooding a major city's subway stations, a few inches of sea level rise makes a big difference in the price tag.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby juanton » Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:46 am

http://grist.org/climate-energy/reddits ... A.facebook

Ha ha ha. The complaints in the comments section mentioning restriction of free speech are laughable. It's a privately owned site.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:44 pm

From the guy who runs the excellent weather site Wunderground:
Jeff Masters wrote:November 2013 was the globe's warmest November since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA. The year-to-date period of January - November has been the 4th warmest such period on record. November 2013 global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record. November 2013 was the 345th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2600
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