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Isthmus on Edgewater

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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby green union terrace chair » Thu Mar 31, 2011 12:59 pm

Huckleby wrote:
Azog wrote: The watchers of the evening news are not a random sample of the population, they are the part of the population that watches the evening news on that channel.


Somebody in this thread challenged me to prove that the majority of Madison residents support the Edgewater project.

Obviously there is no definitive proof available, just anecdotal and circumstantial evidence, its ultimately a judgement call. The one-sided opinion of evening news watchers is strong evidence. The overwhelming support of elected officials is strong evidence.

If the anti-Edgewater warriors want to beleive they were the voice of the People, and that they were screwed by crooked legal maneuvers, who am I to spoil their wet dream?


In the choice between useless information that could possibly mislead and no information, I'll take no information and hold out for better information in the future.

An online poll's results are based on a)people who visit that particular website AND b)happen to see the poll AND c)decided they want to take part in it. They're also usually written by news reporters / editors who may not have any experience in asking unbiased or correctly-worded questions. As someone else mentioned there's no restriction as to geographic location of the answerer and many polls can't restrict to one vote per person.

Online polls are entertainment devices, not accurate representations of public opinion.

The best we have will be the results of next Tuesday's municipal elections, but even those won't be purely driven by Edgewater opinion (and plenty of voters aren't pro or con, they really don't give a shit about this particular issue). Though if Maniaci loses by 20 points you might get an inkling.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Thu Mar 31, 2011 1:15 pm

green union terrace chair wrote: The best we have will be the results of next Tuesday's municipal elections, but even those won't be purely driven by Edgewater opinion


I suspect that 90% of the public has only a passing interest in the Edgewater project, it has already largely faded from memory. Obviously people who are still butt-sore over the outcome may vote on this issue.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Kashka-Kat » Sat Apr 02, 2011 1:03 pm

I'll ask my question here since it got removed from the Daily Page -

Does the city approval of the 16 million in TIF constitute a legal agreement to actually do the deal? Can it be rescinded? In light of other much more pressing priorities that have come about in the last few weeks - you know, schools and busses and such?

This is one more difference between candidates - Dave won't ever go back and re-assess the budget. Paul has said he would.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby snoqueen » Sat Apr 02, 2011 5:15 pm

Does the city approval of the 16 million in TIF constitute a legal agreement to actually do the deal? Can it be rescinded? In light of other much more pressing priorities that have come about in the last few weeks - you know, schools and busses and such?


I can't answer all of this, but the TIF money wouldn't become part of Edgewater's financing unless the developer was able to obtain private (usually bank) funding and begin construction. TIF is an agreement that lasts over years, not a cash grant. It "allows municipalities to invest in infrastructure and other improvements, and pay for these investments by capturing property tax revenue from the newly developed property." (You can read the whole Department of Revenue "What is TIF" document here: http://www.revenue.wi.gov/pubs/slf/tif/1-1.pdf)

I too would like to know if the Edgewater TIF agreement had an expiration date or can be rescinded in light of (potential) new pressures on our schools. I do know the school board examined Edgewater's TIF with a critical eye when it was under consideration, being concerned that it diminished or delayed present-day school funding.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Sat Apr 02, 2011 11:49 pm

green union terrace chair wrote: In the choice between useless information that could possibly mislead and no information, I'll take no information and hold out for better information in the future .


A poll taken by local news show showing strong support for the Edgewater is not useless, even if it is not definitive, and you have offered no credible argument as to how it might be misleading.

The fact that the overwhelmng majority of elected officials supported the Edgewater project makes widespread public opposition almost unthinkable.

There were many articles at Madison.com over a year-long period. I would say that public comments ran at least 4:1 in favor of the Edgewater project.

I frequently chit-chat with people at the UW Sports-Med facility near Westgate. Over at least a dozen conversations, I never heard from a single person who opposed the Edgewater Project. The demo there is fairly broad, with some tendency towards upscale, west side liberals associated with the U.W.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby fennel » Sun Apr 03, 2011 3:43 am

This reminds me I need to vote for Soglin.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Twofer4 » Sun Apr 03, 2011 8:05 am

It seems some Soglin supporters don't really know where he stands on the Edgewater issue. Of course, that could be said about a few other issues as well...

Also, the title of this thread is inaccurate, go figure.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Henry Vilas » Sun Apr 03, 2011 8:20 am

Huckleby wrote:
green union terrace chair wrote: In the choice between useless information that could possibly mislead and no information, I'll take no information and hold out for better information in the future .


A poll taken by local news show showing strong support for the Edgewater is not useless, even if it is not definitive, and you have offered no credible argument as to how it might be misleading.

The New York Times offers such a credible argument.

Internet Polls Found to Be Unrepresentative

Most Internet polls should be avoided as measures of the opinions of the general population, according to a report released last month by the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR).

The AAPOR Report on Online Panels maintains that “researchers should avoid non-probability online panels when one of the research objectives is to accurately estimate population values.”

Since there is no established theoretical basis to argue that “opt-in” online panels, which are known as non-probability volunteer-based Internet surveys, can used to estimate the attitudes of the general population, the report stated that “claims of ‘representativeness’ should be avoided when using these sample sources.”
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Sun Apr 03, 2011 10:02 am

You have to look at a lot of factors in deciding how to interpret a poll result, particularly where it is taken. That does not mean you simply dismiss all internet polls, or reject particular results you don't like. It is one of many indicators.

The passionate opponents of the Edgewater were a decided minority, they were able to leverage disproportionate, undemocratic power through the Landmark Commission and the absurd proposition that a 30-block swath of the downtown isthmus is a "historic district."

I don't begrudge opponents of the Edgewater expanision their opinion. Maybe they have a better aesthetic sense on this one than the average, marginally engaged citizen.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby jjoyce » Sun Apr 03, 2011 10:43 am

Huck: you said the city "overwhelmingly" supports the Edgewater project and, to prove your point, cite memories of an online poll (got a link?).

I think it's fair to say that nobody accepts that. Should I post a poll to see if I'm right?
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Sun Apr 03, 2011 10:55 am

jjoyce wrote:Huck: you said the city "overwhelmingly" supports the Edgewater project and, to prove your point, cite memories of an online poll (got a link?)


No, I cited the online poll among 4 indicators that the city overwhelmingly supports the edgewater project.

BTW, there were two online polls favoring Edgewater. The link to the channel3000 poll was given about 6 bazzillion times during our endless debates last year.

Do I care enough to search through the old threads and dredge-up the link? We shall see....

jjoyce wrote:I think it's fair to say that nobody accepts that. Should I post a poll to see if I'm right?

Skip the poll, its pretty obvious that Edgewater opponents, at least the charged-ones here, are unwilling to accept ANY evidence that they are in the minority.

Why such a fear of arguing a minority position?
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Sun Apr 03, 2011 11:22 am

http://www.channel3000.com/news/21786256/detail.html

1811 (83%) respondents think the redevelopment project should go forward
351 (16%) are for halting the Edgewater project.
1% other

The other poll mentioned in old thread was a madison.com poll with 24% against the project, but no link there.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Kashka-Kat » Sun Apr 03, 2011 2:08 pm

Polls schmolls. What about the poll that asked how many people don't care as long as no TIF? Oh wait, there wasn't one.
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Azog » Sun Apr 03, 2011 6:18 pm

Slick WIlly was comparing the Monona Terrace referendums to the Edgewater power play. Nonexistent polls aside, how did the referendum on the Edgewater turn out? OH yeah we didn't get one. Hm, I am starting to see the difference...
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Re: Isthmus on Edgewater

Postby Huckleby » Sun Apr 03, 2011 7:40 pm

I'm not big on referendums, but in this case an advisory referendum would have been very useful. We wouldn't be left with such hard feelings.
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