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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Ned Flanders » Mon May 07, 2012 5:24 pm

jjoyce wrote:Has anyone ever seen New Media Meade and MadMind at the same strip club?

Image
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Tue May 08, 2012 11:00 am

Obama 59.5

Walker 59.4
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Tue May 08, 2012 1:27 pm

Update: Walker overtakes Obama!

Obama 59.3

Walker 59.4
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Tue May 08, 2012 9:09 pm

Buy opportunity for Walker.Recall.Win
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Thu May 10, 2012 11:08 am

Walker to win recall: (ruh roh) back up to 65%
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Bland » Thu May 10, 2012 11:19 am

Meade to continue this pointlessness....... holding steady at 100%.
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Fri May 11, 2012 4:16 pm

Walker to win: 67.5%
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Sun May 13, 2012 4:07 pm

68%
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Mon May 14, 2012 3:39 pm

Walker 70.4%

Obama 59.4%

Is this why Walker is so far up?
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Mon May 14, 2012 5:15 pm

Walker 72.5

Irrational exuberance? Could be a short sell opportunity for all you Barrett fans.
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Mon May 14, 2012 7:57 pm

Walker.Win.Recall 79.0%

Obama Reelect 58.8%
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Detritus » Mon May 14, 2012 8:14 pm

It's not at all clear to me that Intrade's much-vaunted accuracy is applicable in this case. I've done quite a bit of searching, and all the assessments of its accuracy are based on national elections. The most thorough--and one which may actually address the increasing numbers for for Walker about which Meade's crowing so much--concerns the presidential elections. I see no prior examples of purely state elections. It is possible that the high trading for Walker represents the high amount of out-of-state money in his campaign, and therefore the widespread perception that money buys elections. In other words, the bettors are betting on money, not on candidates.

Is money always the sure bet?
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Mon May 14, 2012 9:53 pm

Washington Post, Daily Kos, Hotline On Call, Wake up America, Weekly Standard, Althouse and The Raw Story. Those are some of the national media who are discussing the Wisconsin recall election right now, according to memorandum . This is not a "purely state election" and there is a great amount of interest and information available.

If you look at the chart, you'll notice that, during its lifetime, trading volume was heaviest in the days prior to the primary election last week when Walker to win lost about 25% of its value. Since then - the primary in which we finally learned who Walker's opponent will be, Walker to win has climbed steadily on moderate trading and has tested new upper limits.

How much of the trading is technical ("on money") and how much of it is based on fundamental information, including rumors - your guess is as good as mine. We'll find out in three short weeks. Typically, Intrade markets become more accurate the closer we get to the predicted event.
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Detritus » Mon May 14, 2012 10:06 pm

Meade wrote:This is not a "purely state election" and there is a great amount of interest and information available.
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Typically, Intrade markets become more accurate the closer we get to the predicted event.

It is a purely state election in that only Wisconsin residents vote. Outsiders (which is probably most of the people trading on Walker) are not part of that, and there is no nationwide election that the recall forms a part of. This is a one-off, in other words, and there are no assessments that I have found of Intrade accuracy in an election of this kind.

Regular polls also become more accurate the closer the election comes, and the relationship between the two is obvious--polls closer to the election tend to drive the trading, whereas those farther away do not. Remember, the two measure different things: Intrade measures who a certain groups thinks will win the election, while the polls measure how a certain group intends to vote. Knowing (close to the election) how people intend to vote should affect who the traders think will win, or they're not very good at it.
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Tue May 15, 2012 8:54 am

There is too much interest and too much money from outside of Wisconsin for this to be a "purely" state election.

Walker to win: 75.5%
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