Meade wrote:This is not a "purely state election" and there is a great amount of interest and information available.
Typically, Intrade markets become more accurate the closer we get to the predicted event.
a purely state election in that only Wisconsin residents vote. Outsiders (which is probably most of the people trading on Walker) are not part of that, and there is no nationwide election that the recall forms a part of. This is a one-off, in other words, and there are no assessments that I have found of Intrade accuracy in an election of this kind.
Regular polls also become more accurate the closer the election comes, and the relationship between the two is obvious--polls closer to the election tend to drive the trading, whereas those farther away do not. Remember, the two measure different things: Intrade measures who a certain groups thinks will win the election, while the polls measure how a certain group intends to vote. Knowing (close to the election) how people intend to vote should affect who the traders think will win, or they're not very good at it.