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Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby bdog » Sun May 20, 2012 7:12 am

Meade what's the latest?
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Sun May 20, 2012 7:24 am

Ha ha ha ha ha!
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Sun May 20, 2012 11:11 am

Walker: 84.6

Obama: 56.9
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby bdog » Sun May 20, 2012 11:40 am

Thanks Meade, keep 'em coming.
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Sun May 20, 2012 8:05 pm

Walker: 87.9

Obama: 56.7

I notice since Apr 12 when O.J. compassionately posted this:

O.J. wrote:Larry is just freaking out because the latest from Intrade suggests that Obama has a 61% chance of re-election. This isn't some poll that Larry would choose to ignore if it didn't fit his needs, this is a perfect example of people putting their money where their mouths are, in a free market. Larry is apoplectic today, let's give him a break.


Obama has steadily lost value and I'm no longer apoplectic.

Thanks O.J.!
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Mon May 21, 2012 1:49 pm

Walker: 89.5

Obama: 56.2

(And all O.J. can do, it seems, is try to insult my spouse. Has O.J. become apoplectic because of the downward trend line on Obama?)
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Rich Schultz » Tue May 22, 2012 4:27 am

"You display a profound lack of understanding if you think Intrade is good at predicting outcomes this far in advance. It's not. In the final days or moments before the election it will be (more) accurate (than polls). Until then, it's just a bunch of people pushing buttons on the Internet."
Bland April 25, 2012 p. 1

"Bland clearly has a much better grasp on reality than Larry does. It's too bad Meade doesn't know anyone to teach him a thing or two about logic."
OJ April 26, 2012

Meade, how is it that a guy with a "profound lack of understanding", a weak "grasp on reality" and deficient "logic" is so much better at predicting the results than the reality based Bland and OJ?
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Tue May 22, 2012 9:38 am

Walker: 93.8

Obama: 57.9
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed May 23, 2012 9:44 am

Good news for Obamaphiles and O.J. - Obama up, Walker down!

Walker: 91.9

Obama: 55.7
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed May 23, 2012 12:07 pm

Walker: 85.0 (selloff?)

Obama: 58.0 (are the bulls back? will they test O.J.'s big 61 from back on April 12?)
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Wed May 23, 2012 4:41 pm

Walker: 91.1 - so much for the buy opportunity

Obama: 57.9 - eh
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Thu May 24, 2012 4:24 pm

Walker: 92.0

Obama: 57.8
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Thu May 24, 2012 9:55 pm

NATE SILVER at the NYT blog, "Five Thirty Eight":
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, a Republican, is likely to survive a recall election on June 5, according to recent nonpartisan polls of the state.

Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.

Some polls issued by Democratic-affiliated groups have shown a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Barrett trailing by about three percentage points instead. Partisan-affiliated polls have a long track record of somewhat exaggerating their candidate’s standing, however, and it may be telling that even these polls do not show Mr. Barrett ahead.

In a typical November election, a 6-point lead with two weeks to go would translate into a high probability of winning — roughly on the order of 90 percent, based on the historical accuracy of polls of governors’ races.


Coincidentally, that 90 percent number Silver quotes corresponds nicely to where Walker is trading on Intrade right now: 90.5%
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby bdog » Thu May 24, 2012 10:04 pm

Whoa...that's weird
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Re: Scott Walker Intrade Updates

Postby Meade » Fri May 25, 2012 10:00 am

Walker: 91.8

Obama: 57.4
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