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How misleading are Marquette U polls?

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How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Thu May 31, 2012 2:20 pm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... _blog.html

The poll is an automated one (which means it doesn’t include cell phones) that surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters from May 24-28, which means it was in the field until Monday of this week. Its sample: 43 percent Democrats and Dem-leaners; 43 percent Republican and GOP-leaners; and 13 percent non-leaning independents.

Today’s poll is reinforced by another internal survey released last week by the labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin, which also found a dead heat.(<In a survey of 472 recall voters conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from May 19 to 21, Walker leads Barrett 50 to 47 — within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Barrett leads with independents, 50 percent to 44 percent.)

A public poll taken from May 17-22 by Saint Norbert College found Walker ahead 50-45, though that remained in the poll’s margin of error. Union officials questioned its sampling, and a pollster for Barrett argued to Chris Cillizza that some of the public polling had been taken before Barrett mounted his TV ad offensive against Walker.

UPDATE: The Marquette Law School poll has now been released, and it finds Walker leading Barrett by seven points, 52-45, which is just inside the margin of error.

TPM’s poll tracker has Walker leading by a much narrower margin, 49.4 to 48.6.
Yet the poll chiefly quoted quoted in MSM is Marquette's.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby Meade » Thu May 31, 2012 2:23 pm

I predict Barrett will win by 10 percentage points.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Thu May 31, 2012 2:34 pm

I missed this paragraph from the Washington Post article...

A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby Meade » Thu May 31, 2012 2:50 pm

Here is Celinda Lake, playing the blame game after Scott Brown defeated Martha Coakley: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/1 ... 28600.html
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Thu May 31, 2012 2:58 pm

Interesting article, Meade. She sounds articulate and mature. Her opinions are well developed...

The feeling among voters, said Lake, is that Washington prioritizes Wall Street over Main Street and that, despite Coakley's credentials as a state attorney general who has taken on and beaten Wall Street banks, sending her to Washington would not make a difference. "On the eve of the election, Martha Coakley had a 21-point advantage over Scott Brown on who would fight Wall Street and deliver for Main Street. But it didn't predict to the vote, because voters thought, even if they sent her down here that it wouldn't happen. 'Fine, she had done it in Massachusetts, but no one was doing it in Washington,'" Lake said. "Voters are voting for change and we have to go back to that change message. And we have to deliver on change, especially an economic policy that serves working people."

Lake pointed to polling released by the Economic Policy Institute showing that 65 percent of Americans thought the stimulus served banks interests, 56 percent thought it served corporations and only ten percent that it benefited them.
I have to agree with her.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Jun 04, 2012 10:14 am

Poll: Wis. Gov. Walker holds slim lead over Barrett

A poll out today in the Wisconsin recall election shows the race tightening between GOP Gov. Scott Walker and his Democratic challenger, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

The survey by Public Policy Polling shows Walker leading Barrett, 50% to 47%. Those numbers are down from a poll taken last week by Marquette University Law School, which showed the embattled Republican leading by seven points.
...
The survey of 1,226 voters was conducted Saturday and Sunday. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:04 pm

Barret's internal polls show Walker with a 0.1% lead...

Scott Walker: 47.8%
Tom Barrett: 47.7%
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby Meade » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:35 pm

Really? Because I just heard that Barrett is leading by3.7% - more than the margin of error.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:42 pm

Meade, who wins if Walker wins?

He's increased Wisconsin's debt, so taxpayers aren't winning.

He cut $2.6 billion from the consumer classes, which means they have less to spend at local businesses, so working people and local businesses aren't winning either.

He's gutting the environment, which ultimately increases health care costs. So I suppose health insurers and the medical industrial complex wins a little bit here at the expense of the people of Wisconsin.

Plus a multitude of other cuts all funneled to corporations that didn't provide any jobs anyway. So who wins, Meade?
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jman111 » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:45 pm

jonnygothispen wrote:Meade, who wins if Walker wins?
Meade wins, 'cuz he won't have no man date mandate.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:54 pm

That's kinda the point. It's about selfish people saying and doing selfish things without any tangible facts or any real outcome... but it makes them "feel good."
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby snoqueen » Mon Jun 04, 2012 7:58 pm

That's one of the main points of this whole political movement: nothing matters but me, there is no legitimate collective action, there is not even any legitimate community.

Not sustainable, but destructive.
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jman111 » Mon Jun 04, 2012 8:02 pm

snoqueen wrote: nothing matters but me

...and if I can't have it, those god-damned pinkos shouldn't either....
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby Rich Schultz » Wed Jun 06, 2012 10:04 pm

"The Marquette Law School poll has now been released, and it finds Walker leading Barrett by seven points, 52-45"
May 31, 2012

Democrats slammed the poll as flawed, saying it was out of step with recent polls released by liberal groups and was skewed to favor older, more conservative voters.

100% of precincts reporting 53-46. Seven points.
June 6, 2012
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Re: How misleading are Marquette U polls?

Postby jonnygothispen » Sat Jun 16, 2012 12:18 pm

slammed for due reason: the vote totals didn't match the exit polling data, which was then "adjusted" to nearly match the vote totals. No one knows if the votes were counted properly, nor will we ever know.

The same thing happened in Ohio in 2004: exit polls didn't match the totals. Then we learned that there was substantial ballot tampering, ballot stacking* and electronic theft, if you can believe Bush's top IT guy for over 10 years at the time, Mike Connell, who admitted he sent the electronic machine votes to a Republican firm in Tennessee before they were sent to the Ohio state tabulation machines.

but when there's actual fraud involved, Republicans, nor the corporate mainstream media, is nowhere to be found. Instead they focus on trivial and often non existent types of fraud. perhaps as a diversion for the public sheep, like you, Rich. Feed the sheeple...

* "Witness to a crime" by Richard Hayes Phillips; includes a DVD with over 12,000 photos of forensic evidence of the election theft in Ohio in 2004
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