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Politico: Romney takes the lead

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby david cohen » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:04 pm

Everything Romney has said in the past month, old chap!
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Stella_Guru » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:34 pm

Ned Flanders wrote: the Chicago Gang has plenty of tricks up their sleeves and a two-week window to mobilize.

The favorite tactic of Bush/Cheney, conveniently timed Osama Bin Laden videos right before the election, won't work because they've killed off the actor the CIA had been using to play the part.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby O.J. » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:47 pm

Crap, I loved those videos. Maybe they could hire his non-union Mexican equivalent, Senor bin Ladeno.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby kurt_w » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:17 pm

Stella_Guru wrote:
Ned Flanders wrote: the Chicago Gang has plenty of tricks up their sleeves and a two-week window to mobilize.

The favorite tactic of Bush/Cheney, conveniently timed Osama Bin Laden videos right before the election, won't work because they've killed off the actor the CIA had been using to play the part.


From most people, one would assume this was a joke, but with Stella it's hard to tell.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:51 pm

massimo wrote:It amazes me that people consider popular vote AT ALL. We don't elect our president based on popular vote, just like we don't award victories in the NFL to the team with the most total yards. It's about electoral college votes and total points.

But go ahead, take solace in your "lead". The rest of us know that your guy is still down by two scores and we're about to hit the two-week warning.


Historically the electoral college and the popular vote are rarely out of sync. Ohio is closing. Today Suffolk has it at a tie with 6% up for grabs. Yesterday's PPP poll had Obama up by 1%. I wouldn't feel too bullish about it, especially if Democrats in Ohio don't actually outnumber Republicans by 8 points, as PPP suggests.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby kurt_w » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:15 pm

Well, cherry-picking polls is an express ticket to self-delusion land. For example, you didn't mention that there was also a Quinnipiac poll yesterday that had Obama leading by 5 in Ohio.

It's probably better to look at the various aggregators. Nate Silver (538) gives Obama a 71% chance of winning Ohio. The RCP average has him ahead by 2 points there. The Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) has Obama's odds in Ohio somewhere between 60% to 80%. Larry Sabato at UVA has Ohio as "Leans Democratic".

Some of those sites are generally left of center, some of them lean right. All of them have shown a narrowing of the race in Ohio, but all of them still show Obama leading there.

Basically, this is a very close race, much too close for my comfort. Nate Silver has Obama's odds of winning (the US, not just Ohio) at 70%. That seems about right to me. It's not much comfort, since it means that approximately one time out of three in these circumstances, you'd expect Obama to lose. But I'd rather be on the 70% side of a 70% to 30% odds.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:27 pm

That's a pretty swell breakdown Kurt but anytime I'm quoting PPP (other than being a James Carville fan), I'm far from cherry picking (just trying to keep it short). Quite obviously, Quinnipiac would be the cherry to be picked on that list. And Barrack's tied in two, not leading in all; and the leads he has have shrunk. He's under 50% in a place he needs to win.

I love statistics too, so I really try not to scoff too much when I see people referencing Nate "I'll weigh my polls back down to reality just before the election" Silver.

He's like the baseball analyst who continually forgets he's not actually playing on the team. He's a real nice chef in a comfort food restaurant. Silver's role in this election is to show you guys the odds you want to see so you don't all freak out and stay home.

(And to keep y'all from pondering what the electoral map will look like if it turns out Democrats don't actually outnumber Republicans by the huge 2008-style margins so many of these polls predict).
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby pjbogart » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:36 pm

Bludgeon wrote:I love statistics too, so I really try not to scoff too much when I see people referencing Nate "I'll weigh my polls back down to reality just before the election" Silver.

He's like the baseball analyst who continually forgets he's not actually playing on the team. He's a real nice chef in a comfort food restaurant. Silver's role in this election is to show you guys the odds you want to see so you don't all freak out and stay home.


Silver seems to put a lot of work into his analysis. What work do you do, Bludgeon? Seems like you pick a poll you like and then harp about it for a few minutes. Statistical analysis? Not so much.

For a line cook at the local greasy spoon, Nate Silver seems to be doing pretty well for himself.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby kurt_w » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:49 pm

Yes, I understand that some people on the right are claiming that the polls need to be adjusted to increase their weighting of Republicans. Again, I'd say that's a form of self-delusion. It's of course possible that many different polling groups are all mysteriously under-sampling Republicans. But IMHO the more likely explanation is that people's memories of the Bush Administration are just too fresh. If Romney loses, and if the Congressional Republicans dial down the crazy a notch, in a couple years the GOP should have managed to shed most of the negative associations remaining from the 2000s.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:57 pm

And I say it's delusional for pollsters to weight their samples on a 2008 model, as if we are ever likely to see that kind of turnout from minorities and college kids. You understand that your poll sample is a basic statement about the demographic proportions of what the electorate in 2012 is likely to be. D+9 in this economy with this president is not going to happen. Slowly but surely for the sake of their reputation the media polls are gradually shifting to reflect what has always been a basic fact. Politico, for instance.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Stella_Guru » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:43 am

kurt_w wrote:
Stella_Guru wrote:
Ned Flanders wrote: the Chicago Gang has plenty of tricks up their sleeves and a two-week window to mobilize.

The favorite tactic of Bush/Cheney, conveniently timed Osama Bin Laden videos right before the election, won't work because they've killed off the actor the CIA had been using to play the part.


From most people, one would assume this was a joke, but with Stella it's hard to tell.

STASI?
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Comrade » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:54 am

Stella_Guru wrote:STASI?


Please explain your reference to the East German Secret State Police. What are you trying to infer?
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby kurt_w » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:58 am

Yeah, um, good luck making sense out of that.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Stella_Guru » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:27 pm

Comrade wrote:
Stella_Guru wrote:STASI?


Please explain your reference to the East German Secret State Police. What are you trying to infer?

The "crazy" canard seems to be the m.o. as of late. Amazing that the 'enlightened" can't even come up new and innovative ways to disparage those that won't drink the kool-aid, and have instead resorted to an old STASI method regarding dissent.
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Re: Politico: Romney takes the lead

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:41 pm

At least you didn't invoke Godwin's Law (yet).
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