How to swing the prediction markets and boost Mitt Romney’s fortunes
"Prediction market" isn't quite an accurate term for Intrade. I put no more weight into it than I do broad poll speculations such as Huffington Post
or Real Clear Politics
, which take into account both national and statewide polls. Last night Intrade had Romney ahead in Ohio 60% to 40%, which wasn't accurate at all, not even for Gallup or Rasmussen, which are the polls that have Romney ahead by the largest margins. The number for Ohio is more accurate this morning, but it's obvious to me now that the numbers can be manipulated.