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Colin Powell endorses Obama

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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Stella_Guru » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:36 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote: On the other hand with his background in business and finance, one might hope he would lean away from the use of military force and towards negotiation and compromise.

I doubt it. He has joined Obama in the "name change" game, designating the projected 25,000 troops left in Afghanistan in 2014 as "trainers" rather than "combat" soldiers.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby pjbogart » Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:34 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote:Not sure if the endorsement will have any major effect on the election though. Might sway a few undecideds over, but short of announcing his candidacy for an office, I don't see Powell getting too many people worked up.


I think Obama has all but written off North Carolina, but Powell's endorsement could push Virginia out of reach for Romney. If Obama wins both Ohio and Virginia, the election is essentially over.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Thu Oct 25, 2012 2:54 pm

pjbogart wrote:
Francis Di Domizio wrote:Not sure if the endorsement will have any major effect on the election though. Might sway a few undecideds over, but short of announcing his candidacy for an office, I don't see Powell getting too many people worked up.


I think Obama has all but written off North Carolina, but Powell's endorsement could push Virginia out of reach for Romney. If Obama wins both Ohio and Virginia, the election is essentially over.



I guess I don't see Powell's endorsement having that big an effect. 4 years ago when he crossed party lines to endorse Obama, sure. Now, I don't know that this announcement turns any heads. The people who this might influence probably already assumed Powell was supporting Obama, if they cared at all.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby pjbogart » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:20 pm

Maybe I wasn't clear enough on what I was saying. North Carolina and Virginia both have a lot of coastal military bases. The military voters in these two States are very important. Though I'm not sure that Colin Powell's endorsement means anything to Wisconsin voters, it could have an impact on Virginia's. Obama is already considered slightly ahead in Virginia. A small swing of even a single percent, especially when talking about extremely reliable voters like active duty military and veterans could prove devastating to Romney.

While most national polls show the Presidential race as a dead heat, the electoral college math heavily favors Obama. If it weren't for Romney managing to swing Florida in his direction, I'd say this race was already over. But Florida isn't enough. He needs North Carolina and Virginia, plus he needs Ohio or virtually all the smaller swing States, several of which are fairly firmly in Obama's column.

So, basically, Romney really can't afford to cede Virginia, and Colin Powell's endorsement holds a lot of sway there.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby rabble » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:02 pm

pjbogart wrote:So, basically, Romney really can't afford to cede Virginia, and Colin Powell's endorsement holds a lot of sway there.

The Washington Post agrees with both of you. The endorsement doesn't carry nearly the weight it did last time mostly because it's not a surprise but it does carry some weight and in a tight race, a little bit is a lot better than none.
And, as we noted in 2008, Powell remains among the most popular and trusted figures operating in American politics, which should give his words some heft. (A CNN poll in May 2009 showed that seven in ten people viewed Powell favorably while just 17 percent saw him in an unfavorable light.)

To be clear: Romney would have loved to win Powell’s endorsement. (There is nothing so powerful in politics as a turnabout.) And Powell’s endorsement of Obama could well firm up the incumbent’s lead over Romney on the commander-in-chief question. But, Powell’s 2012 endorsement simply doesn’t carry the same weight that the 2008 version did.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:11 pm

pjbogart wrote:While most national polls show the Presidential race as a dead heat, the electoral college math heavily favors Obama.
Exactly. And only the latter matters, so the only possible reason for the media pushing the former is to make this election seem more exciting than it really is. Why is that working?
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Ned Flanders » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:22 pm

Obama's plan for a bathtub-sized navy trumps any endorsement from Powell.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby kurt_w » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:24 pm

pjbogart wrote:North Carolina and Virginia both have a lot of coastal military bases. The military voters in these two States are very important. Though I'm not sure that Colin Powell's endorsement means anything to Wisconsin voters, it could have an impact on Virginia's. Obama is already considered slightly ahead in Virginia. A small swing of even a single percent, especially when talking about extremely reliable voters like active duty military and veterans could prove devastating to Romney.


Military personnel are donating much more heavily to Obama's campaign than to Romney's. From Open Secrets:

Update: Armed Forces Show Overwhelming Support for Obama

Update, Oct. 21: Fundraising numbers for the month of September show Obama continuing to dominate when it comes to contributions from the military. [...] The new numbers bring Obama's total from military donors to $678,611, and Romney's to $398,450.


The site provides total donations to each candidate from people serving in the various branches of the military. Obama's campaign is well ahead in the four largest categories (Army, Navy, Air Force, and generic "Department of Defense"). The two are virtually tied in donations from the Marines. Romney is well ahead in at least one category (donations from people at the "Defense Acquisition University", whatever that is).
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby jman111 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:41 pm

The Defense Acquisition University (DAU) is a Department of Defense (DoD) training establishment ... that trains the approximately 150,000 military and civilian DoD personnel in the fields of acquisition, technology, and logistics. In addition, DAU provides services to defense contractors.

from wiki

Could its ties to defense contractors play a role?
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Ned Flanders » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:44 pm

kurt_w wrote:
pjbogart wrote:North Carolina and Virginia both have a lot of coastal military bases. The military voters in these two States are very important. Though I'm not sure that Colin Powell's endorsement means anything to Wisconsin voters, it could have an impact on Virginia's. Obama is already considered slightly ahead in Virginia. A small swing of even a single percent, especially when talking about extremely reliable voters like active duty military and veterans could prove devastating to Romney.


Military personnel are donating much more heavily to Obama's campaign than to Romney's. From Open Secrets:

Update: Armed Forces Show Overwhelming Support for Obama

Update, Oct. 21: Fundraising numbers for the month of September show Obama continuing to dominate when it comes to contributions from the military. [...] The new numbers bring Obama's total from military donors to $678,611, and Romney's to $398,450.


The site provides total donations to each candidate from people serving in the various branches of the military. Obama's campaign is well ahead in the four largest categories (Army, Navy, Air Force, and generic "Department of Defense"). The two are virtually tied in donations from the Marines. Romney is well ahead in at least one category (donations from people at the "Defense Acquisition University", whatever that is).


Kurt forgot to include this part :roll:

"Obama’s advantage probably comes in part because some of the personnel are political appointees of his administration, said Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, who has studied military personnel and their impact on elections.

“One party owns the executive branch right now, so the impact could be potentially quite large,” he said. Obama may also be winning a broader battle for support in an election that has seen both candidates “assiduously” court the military, he said.

“It appears that he does have a small but energetic supporter base in the military,” Feaver said.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby kurt_w » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:06 pm

Actually, I screwed up the link -- I mixed together two separate sources.

The quote is from Open Secrets, as I said in the comment. But its link is here:
Update: Armed Forces Show Overwhelming Support for Obama

The actual link in the comment, however, went to a BusinessWeek article here:
Military Personnel Campaign Funds Favor Obama Over Romney

The text that Ned quotes is in the BusinessWeek article. However, the claim that Obama's support is largely coming from political appointees in the Department of Defense does not seem to be well supported by the more detailed data available at Open Secrets.

The table at that site shows that the vast majority of Obama's military-related campaign contributions come from people listing their occupation as the Army, Navy, or Air Force; not DoD.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby kurt_w » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:08 pm

Note that, contra Ned's blathering about naval vessels, Navy men and women are donating to Obama's campaign at just about exactly twice the rate of Romney's campaign.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby Ned Flanders » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:13 pm

Military brass feels the need to keep the boss happy.

Kurt = fail.
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby rabble » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:47 pm

The desperation is palpable.

Ned=fail. :-)
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Re: Colin Powell endorses Obama

Postby pjbogart » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:09 pm

Ned Flanders wrote:Obama's plan for a bathtub-sized navy trumps any endorsement from Powell.


Hey Ned, did they have any of these in 1916?

Image

I think we're going to need a bigger bathtub.
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