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All the election predictions in one place

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All the election predictions in one place

Postby kurt_w » Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:31 am

Here are twelve sites -- liberal and conservative, academic and amateur -- that use statistical analysis to predict the election results. The current predictions, ordered from most to least favorable for Obama, are as follows:

    Votamatic (Drew Linzer, Emory University): 332 - 206
    TPM Electoral Scoreboard (activist/liberal): 328 - 210*
    HuffPo (activist/liberal): 317.5 - 220.5*
    HorsesAss (Darryl Holman, U. of Washington): 299 - 239
    Electoral-Vote.com (Andrew Tanenbaum, Vrije Universiteit): 294 - 244
    FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver, NY Times): 294 - 244
    Median prediction: 292.5 - 245.5
    Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang, Princeton): 291 - 247
    Karl Rove (activist/conservative): 283.5 - 254.5*
    270toWin (crowdsourced aggregator): 281 - 257
    DeSart and Holbrook (Utah Valley University): 281 - 257
    RealClearPolitics (activist/conservative): 281 - 257
    ElectionProjection.com (activist/conservative): 277 - 261

All of them, even the three right-wing sources (Karl Rove, RCP, and ElectionProjection.com) show Obama with a 10+ point lead in the Electoral College.

The median prediction is Obama 292.5 - Romney 245.5. The closest sites to this median are Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight), Andrew Tanenbaum (Electoral-Vote.com), and Sam Wang (Princeton).

The mode (most common prediction) is Obama 281, Romney 257.

* Three sites (Karl Rove's site, TPM Electoral Scoreboard, and HuffPo Pollster) leave very close states as unassigned "toss-ups". All three of these sites provide state-level polling data, which I've used to assign the toss-up states to either Romney or Obama. Another popular site, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia, also leaves close states as toss-ups but doesn't include polling data, and his results will vary depending on what site's state-level polls one uses to assign toss-up states. Thus I'm not including Sabato's predictions in the above table, but using state-level polling data from any of the major poll aggregators would yield an Obama victory by margins of at least 281 - 257.

Sources:
http://votamatic.org/forecast-detail/
http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/201 ... ctoral-map
http://horsesass.org/?page_id=39644
http://electoral-vote.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://election.princeton.edu/
http://rove.com/election
http://www.270towin.com/americas-electoral-map/
http://research.uvu.edu/DeSart/forecasting/october.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... s_ups.html
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php
Last edited by kurt_w on Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby kurt_w » Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:08 am

I should add that I find the right-wing freakout over Nate Silver rather amusing. As you can see from the above list, his predictions are pretty much in the center of the distribution.

But if you only read commentary at right-wing sites, you'll get the idea that Silver is some kind of far-left outlier in the prediction business, skewing his numbers to make Obama look good.

Posts like Bludgeon's one here are basically what happens when you spend too much time in the hermetically sealed bubble of groupthink that is the right-wing blogosphere.

Of course, it's always possible that the polls are wrong, and that everybody's predictions -- even Karl Rove's! -- are skewed to the left. But based on what we know now, the most likely outcome for the election is Obama wins with around 290 electoral votes.

Here's a bar graph of the predictions. The dashed line shows the 270-vote threshold Obama needs to cross to win:

Image
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby rabble » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:22 am

Bathtub navy! Bayonetts! Stupid Big Bird! Small crowds! Plausible President! Better default facial expression!

God intended that to happen!

Oh, wait that was something else.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby Ned Flanders » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:30 am

Either the 'Bamster in a squeaker or Romney blows it wide open....
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby Mean Scenester » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:33 am

Ned Flanders wrote:Romney blows

See? Even if Ned's regurgitative blathering one occasionally finds a kernel of truth.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby O.J. » Fri Oct 26, 2012 8:38 am

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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby snoqueen » Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:31 am

The things none of the polls can account for are outside events:

-- freakish weather (what if that hurricane thing was coming a week later?)

-- tabulation tampering

-- something resembling the Florida Bush v Gore Supreme Court case

-- (you name it)

In an election this close unexpected events in one or two swing states would change the whole calculation. Personally, I'm expecting the unexpected.

Not all the unexpected is untouched by human hands, of course.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby kurt_w » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:37 am

rabble wrote:Bathtub navy! Bayonetts! Stupid Big Bird! Small crowds! Plausible President! Better default facial expression!


Belligerent Bludgeon is Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered by Big Bird's Benghazi Binder!

Or how about:

Nautically Naive Ned Neglects New Navy Numbers - Ned's Naysaying Nourishes Notorious Nitwits!
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby kurt_w » Thu Nov 01, 2012 7:40 am

OK, when I did that first compilation, there were 12 days left until the election. Now there are six. Time for an update!

The short version:

* Obama continues to increase his lead in the electoral college predictions.

* The "conservative" sites (RealClearPolitics, Karl Rove) have been getting closer to the "middle-of-the-road" sites.

* Median prediction for Obama is now 301.7 electoral college votes, up from 292.5. That's an increase of 9.2 EVs.

* Mean prediction is now 303.0, up from 296.5. That's an increase of 6.5 EVs.

* FiveThirtyEight is now below the median.

Here are the numbers:

    Votamatic (Drew Linzer, Emory University): 332 - 206
    TPM Electoral Scoreboard (activist/liberal): 332 - 206
    Electoral-Vote.com (Andrew Tanenbaum, Vrije Universiteit): 315.5 - 222.5
    HuffPo (activist/liberal): 311 - 227
    Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang, Princeton): 308 - 230
    HorsesAss (Darryl Holman, U. of Washington): 303 - 235
    Median prediction: 301.7 - 236.3
    FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver, NY Times): 300.4 - 237.6
    Karl Rove (activist/conservative): 292 - 246
    ElectionProjection.com (activist/conservative): 290 - 248
    RealClearPolitics (activist/conservative): 290 - 248
    270toWin (crowdsourced aggregator): 281 - 257
    DeSart and Holbrook (Utah Valley University): 281 - 257

See previous post for links to sources. As before, some of the sites listed close states as "toss-up". I assigned those states to whichever candidate was leading in the state's polls at that site, and split the votes for states that are exactly tied.

Image
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby Stebben84 » Thu Nov 01, 2012 8:43 am

Thanks Kurt. You've obviously done some homework as opposed to others whose homework is checking out a conservative blog.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby Shorty » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:53 pm

Kurt, any update? Yahoo says Obama will win:

Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/obam ... 06023.html

"As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney....This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate."

Or there could be GOP fraud.
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby kurt_w » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:21 am

Congratulations to Assistant Professor Drew Linzer of Emory University's Political Science department, who hit the nail exactly on its head with his bold prediction of Obama 332, Romney 206.

Note that Linzer was at the top of the list of election projections, meaning that he was the most wildly optimistic about Obama's chances. Well, wildly optimistic turns out to have been correct.

kurt_w wrote:Here are twelve sites -- liberal and conservative, academic and amateur -- that use statistical analysis to predict the election results. The current predictions, ordered from most to least favorable for Obama, are as follows:

    Votamatic (Drew Linzer, Emory University): 332 - 206
    TPM Electoral Scoreboard (activist/liberal): 328 - 210*
    HuffPo (activist/liberal): 317.5 - 220.5*
    HorsesAss (Darryl Holman, U. of Washington): 299 - 239
    Electoral-Vote.com (Andrew Tanenbaum, Vrije Universiteit): 294 - 244
    FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver, NY Times): 294 - 244
    Median prediction: 292.5 - 245.5
    Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang, Princeton): 291 - 247
    Karl Rove (activist/conservative): 283.5 - 254.5*
    270toWin (crowdsourced aggregator): 281 - 257
    DeSart and Holbrook (Utah Valley University): 281 - 257
    RealClearPolitics (activist/conservative): 281 - 257
    ElectionProjection.com (activist/conservative): 277 - 261
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Re: All the election predictions in one place

Postby pjbogart » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:25 am

What? I get no love? Oh wait, I predicted that after virtually all of the voting was done.

Carry on.
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