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Predictions

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Predictions

Postby jjoyce » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:08 pm

Put up or shut up.

I'm taking the incumbent, pretty much going right along with Nate Silver.

I'm hour by hour on the Senate race, so my prediction there is that votes will be found in Waukesha. Just kidding. Thompson by a point: 50% to 49%
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Re: Predictions

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:16 pm

Wagstrade has been holding steady at 100% for Obama since it was founded.
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Re: Predictions

Postby massimo » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:19 pm

Obama with 294, +1.2% in popular vote.
Baldwin in a squeaker with +0.2%
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Re: Predictions

Postby fisticuffs » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:20 pm

I predict Obama will win the electoral vote handily and lose the popular vote due to turnout in the Sandy ravaged portions of the NE. I think there will be a lot of bellyaching over Ohio and Florida where voting machines and intimidation will make it closer than it should be.

Also. Tammy by a nose.
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Re: Predictions

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:29 pm

Oh, I thought we were just supposed to choose a winner.

I agree with fisti --
I think Obama will win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote, thereby throwing the whole mess into the courts as recounts are demanded and accusations fly, thus giving the Republicans an excuse to claim Obama is an illegitimate President and therefore they don't have to work with him to get our country out of the massive economic mess we're still mired in leading to four more years of total douchebag obstructionism where very little progress is made paving the way for the 2016 election when the Democrats will lose and we'll start the whole cycle over again.

I ain't touching the Tammy/Tommy fight. Is it too late to start a write-in campaign for Timmy?
Image
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Re: Predictions

Postby Meade » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:29 pm

Romney, Thompson, Pocan, Risser, Berceau, Ozanne, McDonell, Gallagher, Chlebowski.
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Re: Predictions

Postby Mean Scenester » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:30 pm

I predict FL and VA are called for Obama early in the evening and for the first time in a long time Ohio can go fuck itself to sleep even before 70% of its precincts have reported.
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Re: Predictions

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:41 pm

Basically what fisti said. I won't make the hard predictions in unopposed races like someone just did.

Will Ryan be shut out, losing in both the Big Game and in his bid for reelection to the House?
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Re: Predictions

Postby rrnate » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:44 pm

I think that Obama's electoral college win will be big enough that we're not going to be looking at court challenges, doubts, etc. Popular vote is definitely a toss-up and I'd guess it won't be clear for a while who wins there, but no matter, as the Dem/Obama campaign has just had far, far superior field game in all of the hotspots from way back when it looked like Willard was sunk in the primary.

Not sure about Tammy/Tommy - definitely close. Tammy continues to poll better but Tommy has been hammering her super hard on TV with some super negative ads.

Also, Ryan will keep his house spot, much to my chagrin.
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Re: Predictions

Postby pjbogart » Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:08 pm

Obama in a squeaker, 277-261. Romney wins Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado. Obama wins Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and Ohio.

Tammy wins by less than 1%, Tommy concedes like a champ rather than drag things out.

Democrats retain control of the Senate with fifty Democrats and two Independents caucusing with the Democrats. Gain only seven house seats.
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Re: Predictions

Postby minicat » Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:42 pm

The Mayans come back and take out Romney-Ryan voters.
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Re: Predictions

Postby gargantua » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:05 pm

Obama, Baldwin, and Pocan. If Obama takes either Virginia or Florida, it'll be an early night.

Obama will win WI by a larger margin than Tammy does in her senate race.
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Re: Predictions

Postby DCB » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:31 pm

Michelle Bachmann and her fellow travelers go down hard, followed by lots of articles on "The End of the Tea Party?".

Dems gain in the House, but don't get a majority. In January, 2 House Republicans jump ship to become 'independents'.

I'm not the type to make predictions, but I'll probably do better than these bozos.
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Re: Predictions

Postby massimo » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:56 pm

What?? The author of your link ends up with exactly the same prediction for Obama as me, 294 and +1.2%. I'd accuse him of ripping me off, but he posted that ahead of me...
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Re: Predictions

Postby bdog » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:18 pm

Obama and Thompson, both comfortably.
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