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Nate Silver's Flawed Model

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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Huckleby » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:08 am

pjbogart wrote:Yikes! Nate Silver's election prediction has become a runaway train. Serious jumps today give Obama a 92.2% chance of winning


Odds have been revised down to 91.6%. Mittmentum has kicked in.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Detritus » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:21 am

Image
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Bludgeon » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:31 pm

Detritus wrote:Image

^^ That's awesome.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Detritus » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:57 pm

So...just bumping this thread because I can't resist.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby pjbogart » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:00 am

Detritus wrote:So...just bumping this thread because I can't resist.


What the fuck are you talking about Detritus? Nate Silver's model is clearly flawed. He predicted that Obama would only win 303 electoral votes and he's likely to win 332. That's a pretty big difference.

What was Bludgeon's prediction?
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Detritus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:09 am

pjbogart wrote:
Detritus wrote:So...just bumping this thread because I can't resist.


What the fuck are you talking about Detritus? Nate Silver's model is clearly flawed. He predicted that Obama would only win 303 electoral votes and he's likely to win 332. That's a pretty big difference.

What was Bludgeon's prediction?

Actually, Silver's last 90% prediction was 313 electoral votes, but if you look at the electoral vote distribution graph, the models giving the highest probability are clustered at 330 votes. He was just being coy.

Good question about Bludge's prediction. I don't quite remember--Bludgeon, care to remind us?
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby kurt_w » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:18 am

I think it's OK for people to choose not to offer a prediction ... but I do think Bludgeon might want to reconsider his unquestioning belief in flawed lines of reasoning about the polls.

People here tried repeatedly to explain to Bludgeon that he was deluding himself by credulously accepting every argument from the right-wing blogosphere that confirmed what he wanted to believe, while studiously avoiding any of the evidence that pointed in the other direction.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby mrak » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:24 am

Bludgeon is, and always has been, a spectacular fool.

Search the Forum, and you'll find him insisting the recording "fake David Koch" prank call to Walker was "audioshopped" - even after Walker's office confirmed it was real.

It defies explanation that anyone pays him a moment's notice.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby kurt_w » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:39 am

You're probably right. I dunno, though, for some reason I never put Bludgeon in the same box as, say, Flanders. Flanders seems to know that he's just retailing propaganda. But Bludgeon somehow always seems to sincerely believe his own nonsense.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby snoqueen » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:45 am

I want to see the final tallies and find out exactly how close Nate Silver got to the popular vote margin.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby pjbogart » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:02 am

kurt_w wrote:You're probably right. I dunno, though, for some reason I never put Bludgeon in the same box as, say, Flanders. Flanders seems to know that he's just retailing propaganda. But Bludgeon somehow always seems to sincerely believe his own nonsense.


I'm not sure why but I always had the impression that Bludgeon was a Republican staffer. He's intelligent and eloquent and has all of the talking points at his fingertips. I guess that's a polite way of calling him a fluffer.

You guys seem to have a fondness for Flanders, I suspect largely due to his longevity. I admit that Flanders' dedication is admirable, but his repeated attacks on women and minorities make him a far more sinister figure than Bludgeon, in my mind. I don't recall Bludgeon ridiculing African American leaders, nor suggesting that Muslims are somehow inferior humans. He doesn't post unflattering pictures of women, essentially demeaning their value as humans by tying it to their physical beauty.

Jason's decision to praise Flanders' contributions perhaps says more about Jason than it does about Flanders.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby kurt_w » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:05 am

pjbogart wrote:You guys seem to have a fondness for Flanders, I suspect largely due to his longevity.


Dunno who "you guys" is, but I'm as anti-Flanders as anyone around here. And you're right, the misogyny is a big part of it.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Galoot » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:42 am

I'm too lazy to go back a page, so pardon me if this was posted already--but Nate Silver's "flawed model" got 50 out of 50 states correct.

Comments, Bludgeon?
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Stebben84 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:57 am

Bludgeon wrote:
To Kurt W: It's cool you like Nate Silver, I'm glad any time people get interested in electoral polls and prognosticating, but c'mon, fivethirtyeight.com is a wet dream on wheels.


I woke up in a puddle of joy.
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Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Michael Patrick » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:43 am

I'm just glad that we had Dean Chambers to set the lame stream media straight.
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