MOBILE USERS: m.isthmus.com
Connect with Isthmus on Twitter · Facebook · Flickr · Newsletters 
Wednesday, July 23, 2014 |  Madison, WI: 78.0° F  Mostly Cloudy
Collapse Photo Bar

Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby snoqueen » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:51 am

A couple other aggregators called it too.

Some op-ed writers out there are decrying the devolution of the electoral process into a tricked-out public opinion survey, but I disagree.

With the tabulated results aligning well with advance polling, it becomes more and more incumbent upon the candidates and the parties to arrive at messages that attract voters -- and they can see ahead of time what works and what doesn't. Sure, with two parties you end up close to 50-50 when both parties are equally competent -- and that's governing from the center. In a big messy country like this one, what else would be workable?

The Republican plan of limiting voter eligibility and opportunity to tilt the table just isn't viable in the long run. If nothing else, at some point they'll run short of old white men. In fact, it looks like they just did.
snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 11286
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Detritus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:53 am

snoqueen wrote:Some op-ed writers out there are decrying the devolution of the electoral process into a tricked-out public opinion survey, but I disagree.

I have to agree. I mean, what do they think an election is--a popularity contest?
Detritus
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2352
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 9:42 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Detritus » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:57 am

Image
Detritus
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2352
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 9:42 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby DCB » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:12 pm

Detritus wrote:Image

Hmm. I wonder if numbers can be useful for other things?
DCB
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2571
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby mrak » Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:36 pm

This afternoon the Romney campaign conceded Florida.

That puts Nate Silver at 51 for 51, and secures Bludgeon's reputation as the Dick Morris of TDPF.
mrak
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2393
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:26 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby david cohen » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:14 pm

Bludgeon worked in the White House and bangs hookers?
david cohen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1307
Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:48 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby mrak » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:38 pm

david cohen wrote:Bludgeon worked in the White House and bangs hookers?

I just meant that he's as consistently wrong as Morris, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's celebrating somewhere by sucking someone's toes (OK, probably his own).
mrak
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2393
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:26 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby manoletters » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:31 pm

I too had my doubts, but seems to me Nate Silver sure was vindicated Tuesday night.
manoletters
Forum Addict
 
Posts: 198
Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 3:30 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Mad Howler » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:16 pm

snoqueen wrote:I want to see the final tallies and find out exactly how close Nate Silver got to the popular vote margin.


The Guardian covered it today Sno. Make of this analysis as you wish.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/grrls ... ?CMP=email
Mad Howler
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1264
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:36 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby kurt_w » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:31 pm

So how exactly did Bludgeon go so wrong, anyway? Here's part of it:

Bludgeon wrote:Nonetheless we must admit that even D+5 is uncommonly generous to the president in polling, as is the idea of a 72%-74% white share of the population


From the exit polls:

Percent of voters by party: D 38%, R 32% (D+6)
Percent of voters by race: white 72%

Bludgeon didn't like the idea of Romney being behind, so he decided the polls must be wrong. But what he airily dismissed as "uncommonly generous to the president" was exactly correct.
kurt_w
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 4963
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Huckleby » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:36 pm

If I'm not mistaken, Silver not only correctly predicted the result for all of the swing stakes, he only narrowly missed on one Senate race! Some 50-50 cliff hanger in North Dakota or similar backwater.

holy cripes.

Silver is right out of central casting, he can play himself when the inevitable movie is made. He is so delightfully nerdy with the coke-bottle glasses and the nervous laugh. Rick Moranis is too old for the part.
Huckleby
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6174
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 5:12 pm
Location: parents' basement

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Mad Howler » Fri Nov 09, 2012 12:46 am

Huckleby wrote:If I'm not mistaken, Silver not only correctly predicted the result for all of the swing stakes, he only narrowly missed on one Senate race! Some 50-50 cliff hanger in North Dakota or similar backwater.

holy cripes.

Silver is right out of central casting, he can play himself when the inevitable movie is made. He is so delightfully nerdy with the coke-bottle glasses and the nervous laugh. Rick Moranis is too old for the part.


viewtopic.php?f=40&t=56048&sid=8812e01d9ef0963dc5f817897317943d#p709229
Mad Howler
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1264
Joined: Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:36 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby Henry Vilas » Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:30 pm

An interesting breakdown on the various polls, the methods they used and their reliability: Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race

From Nate Silver, of course.
Henry Vilas
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 19582
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2002 8:57 pm
Location: Name sez it all

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby DCB » Sun Nov 11, 2012 7:50 pm

More amazing predictions from the master:

"Drunk Nate Silver changes a broken light bulb and mutters to himself, 'one person'"

"Drunk Nate Silver knows exactly how long Drunk Nate Silver meme will be funny"

http://theweek.com/article/index/236197 ... ction-meme

even more:
Drunk Nate Silver knows why the caged bird sings.

Drunk Nate Silver wanders supermarket aisles with a sharpie, changing expiration dates.

Drunk Nate Silver writes a one-sentence letter to PETA: "Don't worry, Schrödinger's cat is fine
DCB
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2571
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

Re: Nate Silver's Flawed Model

Postby mrak » Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:14 pm

Wow, Nate Silver is the new Chuck Norris!

Who could possibly have predicted that?
(Oh, yeah...)
mrak
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2393
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 2:26 pm

PreviousNext

Return to National Politics & Government

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

moviesmusiceats
Select a Movie
Select a Theater


commentsViewedForum
  ISTHMUS FLICKR

Promotions Contact us Privacy Policy Jobs Newsletters RSS
Collapse Photo Bar