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Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby wack wack » Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:22 am

doppel wrote:
wack wack wrote:The great Republican disaster of 2012 rests squarely on his shoulders.


wack wack is right...in his pick of monikers. Since when is losing to an incumbent President a "disaster"? You could count the times its happened on one hand.


Right, the current Republican "soul searching" and continual drop in poll numbers is due to its recent grand success.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby jjoyce » Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:50 pm

Disaster?

Do the Goopers still run Congress, thanks to their majority in the House and barely-minority in the Senate?

I think it's this eagerness to view things through rose-colored glasses that holds Democrats back. Sure, thousands marched on the Capitol in 2011 and it was a spectacular achievement. But the majorities in both houses are back to where they were and the Dems at the Capitol are barely able to serve as speed bumps for all the conservative legislation.

One more thing on the whole stoic European traditions of not opting for grandstanders: Paul Ryan held his seat in the House despite literally grandstanding in his capacity as a vice presidential candidate. In a blue collar district with cities like Janesville and Beloit. Easily.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby kurt_w » Thu Mar 28, 2013 1:20 pm

pjbogart wrote: I'd say that both RoJo and Scooter have an uphill battle to win second terms.

The two situations aren't comparable. Walker is up in 2014, which is an off-year election where the GOP will have higher turnout. And although technically he's still a first-termer, he survived the recall election.

Johnson, in contrast, is up in 2016, when there's a presidential election and Democratic turnout will be higher. He also really *is* a first termer, and unlike Walker with the recall, Johnson hasn't yet proven that he can win in a non-2010-style landslide year.

If you asked me right now, before we know who'll be running against them, I'd guess Walker is favored to win but Johnson has a real uphill battle.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby fisticuffs » Thu Mar 28, 2013 1:25 pm

Paul Ryan held his seat in the House despite literally grandstanding in his capacity as a vice presidential candidate. In a blue collar district with cities like Janesville and Beloit. Easily.


Ryan lost his hometown and Beloit. He won his seat by a small margin despite the national coverage that comes with a VP bid and lets not forget semi's full of cash.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby HawkHead » Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:32 pm

jjoyce wrote:Disaster?

Do the Goopers still run Congress, thanks to their majority in the House and barely-minority in the Senate?

I think it's this eagerness to view things through rose-colored glasses that holds Democrats back. Sure, thousands marched on the Capitol in 2011 and it was a spectacular achievement. But the majorities in both houses are back to where they were and the Dems at the Capitol are barely able to serve as speed bumps for all the conservative legislation.

One more thing on the whole stoic European traditions of not opting for grandstanders: Paul Ryan held his seat in the House despite literally grandstanding in his capacity as a vice presidential candidate. In a blue collar district with cities like Janesville and Beloit. Easily.


Republicans lost seats in both the House and Senate. It was common thought the Rs would have the majority in the Senate after the election and increase their hold on Congress.

The Dems won the most votes in the Congressional races but thanks to 2010 redistricting doesn't hold the majority. I believe PENN is the example. Dems won 52 or 53% of the vote state wide and got 25% of the Congressional seasts.

Seems like someone in PENN knew exactly where to draw the lines. You get the majority of the vote and a super minority of representation.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby snoqueen » Thu Mar 28, 2013 5:05 pm

Seems like someone in PENN knew exactly where to draw the lines. You get the majority of the vote and a super minority of representation.


Another good example is North Carolina.

In 2008 Republicans won 5 of 13 (38%) of their state's U. S. House seats with 45% of the total vote overall.

In 2012, following redistricting, the Rs won 9 of 13 (69%)of N.C. elections for House seats with 47% of the total vote overall.

See? It works.

Reference, which includes a map so you can see exactly how they packed their D voters into a few very odd-shaped districts:

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2 ... icans.html

I can't find it right now, but somewhere out there is a blog from Texas where the writer shows imaginary redistrictings that 1) result in a relatively proportional allocation of Texas seats by party; and 2) result in as strong a Democratic advantage as he could draw up, the opposite of what the Rs accomplished in that state. He was showing how it was totally possible to tilt Texas (or another state) either direction just by drawing different lines, which is indisputably true.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby bdog » Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:37 pm

Any Dem who will say the public sector unions had too good a deal before Act 10 has a 50/50 chance of beating Walker IMHO. Even if they don't believe it.

Neutralize the anger against the likes of Fat Marty and the playing field becomes level. Pull a Falk and they're meat.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby Meade » Thu Mar 28, 2013 9:36 pm

bdog wrote:Any Dem who will say the public sector unions had too good a deal before Act 10 has a 50/50 chance of beating Walker IMHO. Even if they don't believe it.

I think you are exactly right, bdog. Collective bargaining for public sector employees will never return. Not in our lifetime. And everyone knows it. Unfortunately for Wisconsin Dems, there is only one Dem politician in the state who comes anywhere close to saying so - Tom Barrett - and even he doesn't come close enough.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby pjbogart » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:00 pm

Well, there you have it. Pearls of wisdom from two severely moderate analysts who think Democrats should abandon the unions. Thanks for sticking your necks out, boys.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby Meade » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:04 pm

pjbogart wrote:What about Sno? I'd vote for Sno.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby pjbogart » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:13 pm

Not to derail the thread, but is Laurence Meade really, really stupid or does he suffer from Asperger's or some other disorder that makes him incapable of reading between the lines? Seriously, if I say, "I should run for governor because ill-tempered, morbidly obese governors are getting a lot of positive press", would any sane and intelligent person take that literally?

What makes Meade tick?
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby Detritus » Thu Mar 28, 2013 10:48 pm

pjbogart wrote:Not to derail the thread, but is Laurence Meade really, really stupid or does he suffer from Asperger's or some other disorder that makes him incapable of reading between the lines? Seriously, if I say, "I should run for governor because ill-tempered, morbidly obese governors are getting a lot of positive press", would any sane and intelligent person take that literally?

What makes Meade tick?

He's been like this ever since the '72 Muskie campaign derailed in a Holiday Inn in South Milwaukee, leaving Meade with alone in the hotel kiddie pool wearing nothing but a pair of red, white, and blue hotpants and a straw boater crooning the theme song from "Time Tunnel" over and over. That's probably when he started with the ibogaine--Muskie left him his personal stash when he left town in the middle of the night, taking the bus back to Rumford in shame.

It's been downhill ever since for him.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby SidSeven » Thu Mar 28, 2013 11:58 pm

Wow. Where to begin?

Walker has not signed legislation that benefited his campaign doners?

Russ Feingold could beat Walker IF:
He was moderate
He was backed
He wanted to

Walker is a short-term thinker, he moves numbers around on a big spreadsheet until he likes the way they look. He did this as county exec.

Walker:
He wasn't even born here. He is NOT the 'Wisconsin Way'
Divide & Conquer: Self evidently antithetical to the above.

I believe Walker has over-reached. Every single Rep I know has vowed NEVER to vote Rep again, either at State or National level, save 1, & he lives in Colorado. (He must be going nuts)

If the public sector unions grabbed too much for themselves for too many years, that just means the State didn't have very good negotiators, probably because those were appointed to negotiate by Dems (elected with the help of those same unions, which is the argument on the right.)

Citizens United means the Reps have the equivalent finances or MORE than the unions.

The rural/urban dichotomy is self evident. Austria in WWII for instance. A classic example. Vienna. Jews. Money. Perception.

Wisconsin is a bit of a layer cake, that got dropped.

I've heard about the fox valley corridor etc, & Dems really need to get their act together.

If I ever, 40 years ago, thought that I would be experiencing today's politics, I damn sure would be Governor of this Great State.

so, that's what I think.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby bdog » Fri Mar 29, 2013 5:50 am

pjbogart wrote:...Democrats should abandon the unions.

Exactly. If you disagree...good luck on the Falk campaign.
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Re: Scott Walker vs. his book and which Dem?

Postby kurt_w » Fri Mar 29, 2013 6:07 am

SidSeven wrote:The rural/urban dichotomy is self evident. Austria in WWII for instance. A classic example. Vienna. Jews. Money. Perception.

Wisconsin is a bit of a layer cake, that got dropped. [...]

If I ever, 40 years ago, thought that I would be experiencing today's politics, I damn sure would be Governor of this Great State.

so, that's what I think.


Um. Okay.
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