All the states adjacent to Wisconsin are projected to have generous positive growth rates. So it's not regional.
The big questions are, first, can the Democratic party (or can ANYBODY) get this message out to the voting public? And second, can enough votes be found in more "purple" Wisconsin districts (around state universities, in the western part of the state, etc) to overcome the effect of Republican redistricting?
Here is a chart showing states where one party or the other controls both the legislature and governorship, by party: http://www.statescape.com/resources/par ... plits.aspx
The states on Hawk's list that have the poorest outlook are all purely Republican controlled. The states with the best outlook are a mix, some Republican, some Democratic, and some split. So you can't write off a bad outlook entirely to Republican control any more than you can write it off to an upper midwest effect, though all-Republican control doesn't seem to bring the best results overall. (Someone who likes Excel could quantify this better than I can.)
No, it's gotta be some unique Scott Walker poison thing.