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97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby fisticuffs » Wed Aug 28, 2013 3:39 pm

Prof. Wagstaff wrote:
Galoot wrote:Particularly since those +100 degree days are for the U.S. only. But denialists really don't seem to ever get that "global climate" is not the same thing as "U.S. weather".

Heck, they don't even grasp the difference between "climate" and "temperature" most of the time, as evidenced by any number of posts on this thread. But then, I don't really expect accurate use of terms from someone who tosses around non-words like "warmenist".


Warmenist is a perfectly cromulent word. as in... This morning it was pretty cool but it's been warmen up ever since.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Bludgeon » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:35 pm

I hate that this argument has got to be so stupid. If it were a ballet, it would be a squad of overweight ballerinas with gout. Even the "latest facts" we reach to for statistics, either side of the argument, pretty much the equivalent of the beef industry pumping out studies showing how their product is good for you. And the demagoguery never stops. Warmies go scrambling for their side's talking points, Anti-Warmies go scrambling for their sides counter-punch. I hate that we have to have such a discombobulated vat full of dead rats, broken toasters, menudo and battery acid in the place of what we'd like to call a 'debate'.

On the left we have rabid mob #A who simply unquestioningly believe all the results from every study and completely blur the lines between theory and fact. On the right we have rabid mob #B who unquestioningly believe all the results from every counter-study and completely blur the lines between every counter-theory and fact.

It's so fucked. If this argument were a sport, it would be a football game except with cheerleaders in place of all the players, and they all have bats instead of pom poms.

#cheerleaderwithabat.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby wack wack » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:16 am

Bludgeon wrote:On the left we have rabid mob #A who simply unquestioningly believe all the results from every study and completely blur the lines between theory and fact. On the right we have rabid mob #B who unquestioningly believe all the results from every counter-study and completely blur the lines between every counter-theory and fact.

It's so fucked. If this argument were a sport, it would be a football game except with cheerleaders in place of all the players, and they all have bats instead of pom poms.

#cheerleaderwithabat.


What's really fucked is that you continue to present the two sides as equivalent. To be more accurate: on the left you have a rabid mob; on the right you have a completely insane badminton team.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:30 am

Bludgeon wrote:completely blur the lines between theory and fact.

This phrase indicates a complete failure to understand the scientific method. Perhaps that is a source of your false equivalence?
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Thu Aug 29, 2013 8:33 am

Detritus wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:completely blur the lines between theory and fact.

This phrase indicates a complete failure to understand the scientific method. Perhaps that is a source of your false equivalence?

Perhaps it indicates that Bludgeon doesn't give a fuck about the issue, so his entire research is what he skims off internet forums while he's thinking about something else.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Detritus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:17 am

rabble wrote:
Detritus wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:completely blur the lines between theory and fact.

This phrase indicates a complete failure to understand the scientific method. Perhaps that is a source of your false equivalence?

Perhaps it indicates that Bludgeon doesn't give a fuck about the issue, so his entire research is what he skims off internet forums while he's thinking about something else.

Hmm, I confess you have a compellingly seductive argument.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:37 pm

Crop pests and pathogens are moving towards the north and south poles at about three kilometers a year.

Of course, these guys blame it on global warming. I'm accepting their data, and their theory on its cause, as valid.

If any anti-warmenists here would care to refute either, I'd be interested in following the logical progression that led you to doubt its validity. Are bugs and sicknesses really moving towards the poles and if they are, is it really a warming trend that's causing it? We could also discuss whether or not it is harmful to have these organisms widen their ranges.

Here, we demonstrate an average poleward shift of 2.7±0.8 km yr−1 since 1960, in observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens, but with significant variation in trends among taxonomic groups. Observational bias, where developed countries at high latitudes detect pests earlier than developing countries at low latitudes, would result in an apparent shift towards the Equator. The observed positive latitudinal trends in many taxa support the hypothesis of global warming-driven pest movement.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:53 pm

So, the warmist's position is what?

Hypothetical: Take away the human civilization (thus the advent of burning fossil fuels), and the climate over a century would stay exactly the same? That if not for Man, there would be no dynamic progression from cold cycles to hot cycles? The average global temperature stays almost the same from one century to another? [/end].

Take away fossil fuels and there would still be dramatic shifts in the global climate. The sea levels would still change dramatically. Places that are cold now would still become warmer climates in the future; and some regions that are warm today would still be cold, many long years from now. The hurricanes would still seem bigger and stronger than we remember many decades ago, and a certain degree of alarmism would still spread like a fever amongst us humans. Some years our orbit would be a lot closer to the sun; it would still affect the temperature; the temperature would still affect the weather; the weather would still cause us all to speculate about what is causing all these spiking temperatures, changing sea levels, melting ice caps.

And it would still cause particularly sensitive individuals to anthropomorphize this phenomena. Without fossil fuels, we would still find a way to attribute these huge, global, cosmic changes to the virtue of our own behavior. We would divine some other science, measure some other metric, in our futile attempt to claim responsibility for events far beyond our influence, in the vain wish that all these events that scare us, could somehow really be under our control.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Stebben84 » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:02 pm

So let's sit on our hands and do nothing. We'll let God sort it out.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:30 pm

Bludgeon wrote:
Take away fossil fuels and there would still be dramatic shifts in the global climate. The sea levels would still change dramatically.

On a scale of millions of years. And ecosystems would be able to adapt.

With fossil fuels, it will take place in tens of years. And we'll be fucked.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:32 pm

The problem with the 97 prcent consensus paper by Cook et al isn't what is says, it is what it doesn't say (pdf).

Those people who tout the consensus don't really know what is in the text of the paper.

Recent reports that 97% of published scientific papers support the so-called consensus on man-made global warming are based on a paper by John Cook et al.

Precisely what consensus is allegedly being supported in these papers cannot be discerned from the text of the paper.

An analysis of the methodology used by Cook et al. shows that the consensus referred to is trivial:

• that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas

• that human activities have warmed the planet to some unspecified extent.


So anyone who barely believes that climate has warmed at all, that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that human activity had some unspecified effect is in the same category with Al Gore. You couldn't get it any broader than that.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:08 pm

Bludgeon wrote:So, the warmist's position is what?

That we should start preparations to minimize the damage that's about to come down so millions don't die because of weather damage and crop failures that we saw coming decades before they happened.

Yeah in a hundred years things will probably be stable. What the warmists want is to ease into it with as little damage to the infrastructure as possible.

And I wish you and Sandi would get together and agree what slur you want to use. Is it warmists or warmenists?

And if everybody on both sides agrees we're getting warmer, what are the non-warmenists disagreeing with?
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:11 pm

Sandi wrote:So anyone who barely believes that climate has warmed at all, that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that human activity had some unspecified effect is in the same category with Al Gore. You couldn't get it any broader than that.

Sandi's got me blocked so she doesn't know we're talking about bugs and pathogens now.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Bludgeon » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:13 pm

DCB wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:Take away fossil fuels and there would still be dramatic shifts in the global climate. The sea levels would still change dramatically.

On a scale of millions of years. And ecosystems would be able to adapt.

With fossil fuels, it will take place in tens of years. And we'll be fucked.


As usual with conversations about this subject, I don't see much substantiation for the argument you are making. Surely you have to know you're making a wild exaggeration in both cases.

Stebs wrote:So let's sit on our hands and do nothing. We'll let God sort it out.


Nothing is easily the least counterproductive thing that we can do. More harm than good is what we mostly seem to accomplish. For every shrinking 'carbon footprint' there are dozens of construction worker boot-prints surrounding it, that wouldn't even be there if we weren't trying to 'conserve' energy. Look at this ghastly bicycle bridge they're throwing up over the beltline. You know, the one that's right next to the other giant bicycle bridge that's already over the beltline? Nothing says "Going Green" like expending a mountain full of Chinese steel and burning a boatload of fossil fuel to make sure bicyclists don't have to go the long way.

Lip service is all that 99% of our environmental efforts are going to. That seems to be enough for 99% of environmental 'activists'. Who cares if we're burning three barrels of oil to save one, as long as it does not inhibit our ability to feel sanctimonious about it?

/cough cough [iron man] cough cough.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby gargantua » Mon Sep 02, 2013 9:17 pm

rabble wrote:
Bludgeon wrote:So, the warmist's position is what?


And if everybody on both sides agrees we're getting warmer, what are the non-warmenists disagreeing with?

That it is caused by human activity I suppose.
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