MOBILE USERS: m.isthmus.com
Connect with Isthmus on Twitter · Facebook · Flickr · Newsletters · Instagram 
Saturday, September 20, 2014 |  Madison, WI: 76.0° F  Mostly Cloudy
Collapse Photo Bar

97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:21 pm

Stebben, what is it about "not at polluting levels" that you do not understand?
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Stebben84 » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:22 pm

Sandi wrote:Stebben, what is it about "not at polluting levels" that you do not understand?


The fact that you're wrong.
Stebben84
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 4843
Joined: Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:59 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Wed Sep 11, 2013 3:40 pm

Stebben84 wrote:
Sandi wrote:Stebben, what is it about "not at polluting levels" that you do not understand?


The fact that you're wrong.


Well perhaps you don't "understand that I'm wrong," because I am not.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:39 pm

Sandi wrote:Absolutely correct, and thank you for making my point so unmistakably clear. The atmosphere's oxygen is not at polluting levels where it poisons life on earth, nor is carbon dioxide.

Actually, it is. The pH of the ocean is changing, due to the increase in CO2.
DCB
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2650
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Wed Sep 11, 2013 4:54 pm

DCB wrote:
Sandi wrote:Absolutely correct, and thank you for making my point so unmistakably clear. The atmosphere's oxygen is not at polluting levels where it poisons life on earth, nor is carbon dioxide.

Actually, it is. The pH of the ocean is changing, due to the increase in CO2.


Yeah, but pH isn't poisonous either. I was looking over some pH and saw stuff like vinegar and milk. Those aren't poisonous. Did you know that they treat green olives with lye to soften them before they can be consumed? Lye has pH and I love green olives, so I guess I love lye too.

It's all just more scientific fraud by the liberals. And Al Gore has a big boat, so there.
pjbogart
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6154
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:57 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Fri Sep 13, 2013 5:19 pm

With less than two weeks before the next IPCC climate science report begins, a big embarrassment from within the warmenists camp (Nature Climate Change).

[link behind paywall] full pdf text here. (Emphasis added)

[G]lobal mean surface temperature over the past 20 years (1993–2012) rose at a rate of 0.14 ± 0.06 °C per decade (95% confidence interval)1. This rate of warming is significantly slower than that simulated by the climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To illustrate this, we considered trends in global mean surface temperature computed from 117 simulations of the climate by 37 CMIP5 models (see Supplementary Information). These models generally simulate natural variability — including that associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and explosive volcanic eruptions — as well as estimate the combined response of climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol abundance (of sulphate, black carbon and organic carbon, for example), ozone concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric), land use (for example, deforestation) and solar variability. By averaging simulated temperatures only at locations where corresponding observations exist, we find an average simulated rise in global mean surface temperature of 0.30 ± 0.02 °C per decade (using 95% confidence intervals on the model average). The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty (Fig. 1a).

The inconsistency between observed and simulated global warming is even more striking for temperature trends computed over the past fifteen years (1998–2012). For this period, the observed trend of 0.05 ± 0.08 °C per decade is more than four times smaller than the average simulated trend of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C per decade (Fig. 1b).


Image
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby pjbogart » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:22 pm

Meh, I googled it and got two hits, both from Rupert Murdoch publications. I don't put much stock in the opinions of known liars, but I also don't know enough about the science to properly critique the article, assuming it needs critiquing. From my layman's interpretation, it seems they're simply saying that global warming may be tempered by other factors. It seems like a chaos argument, a topic that comes up frequently when discussing climate. In a complex system, predictions are difficult because the equations are enormous and tiny variations in any variable can have significant impact on the final calculus. And perhaps one variable was left out altogether, like accelerated algae growth that consumes CO2 as ocean temperatures rise. Or an increase in aerosolized carbon particles that mitigate the effects of CO2. Furthermore, the article seems to suggest that global warming may be simply slower than previously thought. It doesn't reject the theory altogether.

Regardless, if FoxNews is "on the story" the story is probably bunk. Or the study is mis-characterized.

But frankly, if our ecosystem has a system of checks and balances that will ultimately prevent global warming, I'd consider that good news. It's probably a bit too early to book Rush Limbaugh for your global cooling parade, but there are an assortment of cheaper clowns that you might contact while you build your floats.
pjbogart
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6154
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:57 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:01 am

Sandi, that's an opinion piece, not any kind of research paper. It's cute that you think such a thing would be considered an "embarrassment" and even more adorable that the so-called 97% consensus opinion which sparked this thread is not good enough for you, but three guys writing a letter to the editor is.

Let me ask you this: Do you believe everything you read in Nature Climate Change (I'm sure you're a regular subscriber, right?) or only the tiny percentage of those articles which support the a priori position you adopted long ago? Similarly, do you believe everything said by The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (which employs all three of the scientists who authored this piece), or only the tiny percentage of their output that appears to find fault with the generally accepted views on climate change and surface temperature increases? Those are rhetorical questions, obviously, given that the above link shows that the CCCma stresses that "[t]he Government of Canada supports an aggressive approach to climate change that achieves real environmental and economic benefits for all Canadians" and goes on to explain the need to reduce greenhouse gases and provide suggestions for "helping Canadians adapt to the challenges posed by climate change." We all know you'd never support nonsense like that, right?
Prof. Wagstaff
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 8869
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2002 6:35 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:11 am

pjbogart uses a hell of a lot of words to say nothing at all. Prof. Wagstaff apparently just wants to change the subject.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Prof. Wagstaff » Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:20 am

Oooh, good comeback. I'm sure you hoped to embarrass me with such a cutting reply but I assure you, I am exactly as embarrassed by your last post as the IPCC will be by a single letter to an editor.
Prof. Wagstaff
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 8869
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2002 6:35 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:22 pm

Prof. Wagstaff wrote:Oooh, good comeback. I'm sure you hoped to embarrass me with such a cutting reply but I assure you, I am exactly as embarrassed by your last post as the IPCC will be by a single letter to an editor.

C'mon, Wags, stay on topic. The topic is "scientifically-illiterate opinions that disprove global warming, probably". Take your "peer-reviewed research" nonsense to some other thread.
DCB
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2650
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Ned Flanders » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:01 am

Earth Gains A Record Amount Of Sea Ice In 2013 — ‘Earth has gained 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since this date last year, the largest increase on record’

'There is more sea ice now than there was on this date in 2002'
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/09/14/ ... on-record/
Ned Flanders
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 13275
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 2:48 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:23 am

Ned Flanders wrote:Earth Gains A Record Amount Of Sea blah blah blah

This is the same non-story you posted less than a week ago. You not only don't understand science, you don't even understand your own propaganda.

See the pretty graph? I'll summarize. You're an idiot. Go pour yourself some Brawndo.
DCB
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 2650
Joined: Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:08 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Sun Sep 15, 2013 2:13 am

DCB wrote:
Ned Flanders wrote:Earth Gains A Record Amount Of Sea blah blah blah

This is the same non-story you posted less than a week ago. You not only don't understand science, you don't even understand your own propaganda.

See the pretty graph? I'll summarize. You're an idiot. Go pour yourself some Brawndo.


Except that your "pretty graph" is made up from fantasy. Try one from measured data. University of Illinois – Polar Research Group
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1553
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby jonnygothispen » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:12 am

Your graph shows the same thing as DCB's, Sandi. Thanks for reaffirming the data.
jonnygothispen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 3133
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:53 pm

PreviousNext

Return to National Politics & Government

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

moviesmusiceats
Select a Movie
Select a Theater


commentsViewedForum
  ISTHMUS FLICKR

Promotions Contact us Privacy Policy Jobs Newsletters RSS
Collapse Photo Bar