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97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:14 pm

Sandi wrote:However I shouldn't call them scientists, because they practice soft science ( political ) rather than hard science ( scientific method ).

That's a keeper.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Sandi » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:15 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:
Sandi wrote:However I shouldn't call them scientists, because they practice soft science ( political ) rather than hard science ( scientific method ).

That's a keeper.


A keeper, but I doubt you know the difference.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Henry Vilas » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:20 pm

Hey, I thought you had me on ignore.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:25 pm

HawkHead wrote:Because when I have a scientific question the first place I check is: wattsupwiththat.com

Actually, it works pretty well as long as you remember to reverse whatever you read there.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:36 pm

Madsci wrote:I am curious as to why sea level rise differs in various areas. The scientific explanation please.

Sea level varies from region to region due to prevailing winds and currents. So anything that changes the strength or consistency of winds and currents will cause sea level to rise faster in some places than others.

At some point, sea level rise will also be affected by slight changes in the earth's gravitational field due to the melting of polar ice. There was a recent paper in Science by Jerry Mitrovica that looked at what will happen once the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is gone. It contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 5 meters ... but in the mid-Atlantic region sea level will actually rise by over 6 meters. That's because the gravitational attraction of the ice sheet -- which currently pulls water towards the southern hemisphere -- will be gone. So proportionately more of the sea level rise from WAIS will end up in the northern hemisphere.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:52 pm

Sandi wrote:
Madsci wrote:I am curious as to why sea level rise differs in various areas. The scientific explanation please.


For several reason, but subsidence is also a factor, which is the case with the case of the Marshal Islands.

The map that Madsci is referring to is from satellite radar altimetry. The satellites are not affected by subsidence. I already pointed this out once but apparently Sandi is having trouble grasping it.

For the globe as a whole, thermal expansion (due to warming of the oceans) and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets is causing about 3.5 mm/year of sea level rise. In the Western Pacific, the rate is more like 8 to 9 mm/year (or more). The larger rate of increase in the western Pacific is due to changes in the tropical Pacific wind field and ocean circulation. I don't know how long that will continue; at some point, it will probably revert to something closer to the global average rate of sea level rise.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:18 pm

Krugman's article on why it's so hard to convince people we need to do something about this is a good read. I guess I knew it all along but hadn't seen it put so succinctly as he does in his conclusion.

So the real obstacle, as we try to confront global warming, is economic ideology reinforced by hostility to science. In some ways this makes the task easier: we do not, in fact, have to force people to accept large monetary losses. But we do have to overcome pride and willful ignorance, which is hard indeed.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby snoqueen » Mon Jun 09, 2014 6:13 pm

Reading what Krugman wrote today, I found myself wondering if maybe he's not a better economist than social observer (something I've wondered before regarding his columns). Is the denial faction driven by their own thinking, or have they been prodded by the coal and gas interests? We can all agree anti-intellectualism is a consistent force in American politics, but did the carbon-fuel moneybags harness the anti-intellectuals for their own financial purposes, or did the alliance arise of its own accord?

This might be a follow-the-money question and if we went back and uncovered whoever/whatever is funding the five or ten most influential anti-climate-science demagogues, the answer could be clear.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:44 pm

snoqueen wrote: Is the denial faction driven by their own thinking, or have they been prodded by the coal and gas interests?

My guess is: both. Obviously the fossil fuel industry has been pumping money into a big propaganda system, and into buying elected officials.
Though they be evil, they be not stupid. They don't need to convince everybody. Not even a majority. Just enough to make it politically feasible to stall any serious solutions. So they tailored their propaganda to fit a willing audience. Useful idiots, as it were.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Madsci » Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:34 pm

Sandi wrote:
Madsci wrote:I am curious as to why sea level rise differs in various areas. The scientific explanation please.


For several reason, but subsidence is also a factor, which is the case with the case of the Marshal Islands.


Sandi went for the bait. I expected a non-scientific explanation from you and you didn't disappoint me.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Madsci » Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:49 pm

kurt_w wrote:
Madsci wrote:I am curious as to why sea level rise differs in various areas. The scientific explanation please.

Sea level varies from region to region due to prevailing winds and currents. So anything that changes the strength or consistency of winds and currents will cause sea level to rise faster in some places than others.

At some point, sea level rise will also be affected by slight changes in the earth's gravitational field due to the melting of polar ice. There was a recent paper in Science by Jerry Mitrovica that looked at what will happen once the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is gone. It contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 5 meters ... but in the mid-Atlantic region sea level will actually rise by over 6 meters. That's because the gravitational attraction of the ice sheet -- which currently pulls water towards the southern hemisphere -- will be gone. So proportionately more of the sea level rise from WAIS will end up in the northern hemisphere.


Thanks, I was guessing the difference in sea level rise has something to due with the gravitational fields of the earth and maybe the moon or other objects in the solar system. My astronomy/earth science is a bit rusty.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby kurt_w » Tue Jun 10, 2014 7:38 pm

Well, the tides are obviously driven by the gravitational attraction of the Moon and the Sun. But I'm not sure how that would translate to differences in the "average" tide (a.k.a. "sea level") in different places, let alone to different rates of change in sea level.

IPCC says: Spatial variability of the rates of sea level rise is mostly due to non-uniform changes in temperature and salinity and related to changes in the ocean circulation.

I hadn't thought about changes in salinity. Salt water is denser than fresh water, so a change in salinity in one part of the ocean (due to an increase/decrease in evaporation, precipitation, or river discharge) might cause a local change in sea level.

Mostly when people talk about this, they cite winds and currents as the reason for spatial variation in sea level rise. But lately there is also a lot of talk about the gravitational pull of polar ice sheets and the effect that has on sea level. I think people just recently became aware of it so it's like a shiny object everyone is suddenly interested in.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby DCB » Tue Jun 24, 2014 11:02 am

Its still warming up. Not cooling.
Driven by exceptionally warm ocean waters, Earth smashed a record for heat in May and is likely to keep on breaking high temperature marks, experts say.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Monday said May's average temperature on Earth of 15.54 C beat the old record set four years ago. In April, the globe tied the 2010 record for that month. Records go back to 1880.

...

The last global monthly cold record was set in December 1916.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/clima ... -1.2684615

And the coming El Nino will probably warm it up even more. The Dells people should start thinking of opening a franchise in International Falls.
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby Henry Vilas » Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:39 pm

Republican EPA chiefs to Congress: Act on climate

Top environmental regulators for four Republican presidents told Congress on Wednesday what many Republican lawmakers won't: Action is needed on global warming.


And Sandi's reply is...?
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Re: 97% Scientist Consensus: global warming is man-made

Postby rabble » Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:53 pm

Pffft!
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