MOBILE USERS: m.isthmus.com
Connect with Isthmus:         Newsletters 
Monday, October 20, 2014 |  Madison, WI: 52.0° F  Overcast
Collapse Photo Bar

Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 years

Races for the Senate, U.S. House, etc. and other issues of national importance.

Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 years

Postby rabble » Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:14 pm

I was going to put this in the 97% thread but then I thought maybe we ought to start a new thread after every twenty or thirty pages of climate change headbanging. Just to be different.

Definitely, we need more study, more debate, and more standing still. We shouldn't do a damn thing till everybody, including Sandi and John Henry are completely satisfied and certain of what to do. Because we have plllllennnnnty of time.

The first comprehensive survey of Antarctica’s ice shelves finds that melting is occurring at a rate unprecedented in modern history.
Warming oceans are literally dissolving away the ice from underneath, according to lead author Eric Rignot, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and researcher with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. The study is published today, June 14, in the journal Science.

Before this new study, scientists believed that iceberg calving–when large chunks of ice break off a glacier and fall into the sea–was the dominant form of ice loss in Antarctica. Now, researchers find that 55 percent of all ice shelf loss from 2003 to 2008 was due to basal ice melt, an amount much greater than previously thought.
rabble
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6288
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Sandi » Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:11 pm

Nature will continue to vary the climate regardless of what humans do. However the AGW crowd got their message out first. It is hard to refute after the fact with the real facts. A quote by British biologist Thomas Huxley too often carries a sad truth: The great tragedy of Science-the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.

The statement: "Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 years" is true. The problem though is, that it is like saying it is warmer today than anytime in the past week. Why, because 1000 years is hardly a blip in the noise historically.

In fact if they went back just another hundred years or so, they would be in big trouble. They would have included the Medieval Warm Period, which was warmer, and not that long ago (see the 1st graph). The spot where the statement stops is just after the MWP. Convenient.

Keep in mind that temperatures were higher, and for longer periods of time, in past interglacial periods. During those periods, the ice sheets retreated at least as far, if not further than they have at present. See the charts below.


Previous warm periods. Note that the three prior warm periods were warmer than our current warm period.

Image


Ice volume and termperature over the past 450K years. Ice volume is shown sorta backwards with more ice lower on the chart, so it isn't upside down compared to thep I guess.

Image

You don't have to be very sharp looking at the graphs, to notice that the current warming, and Antarctic volume are not remarkable at all, but pretty much expected based on past climate history.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby rabble » Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:36 pm

Hey wait a minute. Current warming?

Just last week you said it stopped like sixteen years ago.
rabble
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6288
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Sandi » Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:39 pm

rabble wrote:Hey wait a minute. Current warming?

Just last week you said it stopped like sixteen years ago.


There is a significant difference between "trends" and "current," you would do well not to confuse them.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby rabble » Sat Jun 15, 2013 11:09 pm

Boy, you sure can tap dance.
rabble
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6288
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby rabble » Sun Jun 16, 2013 12:43 am

Climate talk shifts from curbing CO2 to adapting
Efforts to curb global warming have quietly shifted as greenhouse gases inexorably rise.

The conversation is no longer solely about how to save the planet by cutting carbon emissions. It's becoming more about how to save ourselves from the warming planet's wild weather.

It was Mayor Michael Bloomberg's announcement last week of an ambitious plan to stave off New York City's rising seas with flood gates, levees and more that brought this transition into full focus.
rabble
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6288
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Galoot » Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:57 am

Sandy is using old and debunked data. The 2nd graph about ice volumes is debunked by the very article that rabble cited to begin this thread. More to the point, we should be in a long interglacial cooling period, in which ice volumes should be increasing, yet the ice volumes we have today are lower than the warmest interglacial periods in the past.

As for the first graph--Carter's paper has been soundly debunked, in particular by Robert Ward, in this paper http://www.eap-journal.com.au/archive/v ... 2_ward.pdf

The graph is ridiculous, as Ward points out.
Sandi wrote:Previous warm periods. Note that the three prior warm periods were warmer than our current warm period.

Image



Look closely at that graph. It quite obviously ends long before the present--in 1935, to be exact. That is several decades before the current rapid warming began.

Carter is a sloppy scientist and writer, to the point where he used some fabricated quote:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 94552.html

"Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen," Sir John [Houghton] was supposed to have said in 1994.


But Sir John Houghton never said that.

The trouble is, Sir John Houghton has never said what he is quoted as saying. The words do not appear in his own book on global warming, first published in 1994, despite statements to the contrary. In fact, he denies emphatically that he ever said it at any time, either verbally or in writing.


So Sandi is relying on this guy Carter, who used sleight-of-hand to make it appear that the earth was far warmer in the recent past, and who uses fabricated quotes to try to smear climate change scientists.

Is anybody surprised?
Galoot
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1453
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 1:10 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby other i » Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:52 am

Base line question for deniers or naturists or whatever you're calling yourselves now....

IF we determined that NATURALLY produced climate change was about to occur on a scale that would decimate human activity, would you be content to let it happen without any human response because it was within parameters that had existed in the last x thousands or hundreds of thousands of years?
other i
Forum Addict
 
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 2:15 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby snoqueen » Sun Jun 16, 2013 11:51 am

I actually asked that question to a climate change denier I used to work with. He was on the extreme-religious end of the scale and his reply was then it would be god's will.

I'd say non-theist deniers use a similar argument when they imply this is just how nature works. The point is we can't do anything about it (whether because it's god acting, or because nature is bigger than us) so we needn't bother trying.

To a degree, I agree with the principle nature is bigger than us. If we're already past some tipping point in climate change, then we ought to be focusing more on moving away from the shoreline, changing our agricultural patterns, and other adaptations.

From what I can tell, though, it's still worthwhile to try and back down our carbon based fuel usage and other greenhouse-gas producing activities. I don't know if anybody's got a good handle on how close we are to the theoretical tipping point. Maybe we can still buy some time.

I believe population decrease through natural means (education of women, for one), dietary shifts away from meat production, strict and creative efforts at energy conservation, and restoration of tropical forestation could work over a long period of time. All those are powerful, not weak, changes, and work with not against nature's forces.
snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 11613
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby rabble » Sun Jun 16, 2013 12:48 pm

snoqueen wrote:I actually asked that question to a climate change denier I used to work with. He was on the extreme-religious end of the scale and his reply was then it would be god's will.

They aren't quite that sure about the "god's will" thing when it's a hurricane or a flood and their own house is involved. They seem to be more interested in circumventing the will of god then.
rabble
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 6288
Joined: Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:50 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Sandi » Sun Jun 16, 2013 1:07 pm

other i wrote:IF we determined that NATURALLY produced climate change was about to occur on a scale that would decimate human activity, would you be content to let it happen without any human response because it was within parameters that had existed in the last x thousands or hundreds of thousands of years?


If there was anything that we could do to prevent it, I would be all for it. Reducing human carbon output wouldn't have much if any effect. Not that I am against reducing carbon output, I go along with that cheerfully as long as it doesn't hurt the economy. But only to reduce fossil fuel useage.

snoqueen wrote:To a degree, I agree with the principle nature is bigger than us. If we're already past some tipping point in climate change, then we ought to be focusing more on moving away from the shoreline, changing our agricultural patterns, and other adaptations.


Agreed, anything that would be that big would likely be caused by heavy volcanic action. Moving to safer areas is only common sense. As for normal temperature increase, sea levels will rise as they always have. Moving away from coastal areas will be a must. However inland, it will be a plus: longer growing seasons and bumper crops, especially for northern areas like Canada.

As usual Rabble has nothing to add on his own thread, but needs to get a trollish dig in.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby snoqueen » Sun Jun 16, 2013 2:30 pm

Agreed, anything that would be that big would likely be caused by heavy volcanic action.


Are you saying you think rising sea levels and greater frequency of extreme weather events (hurricanes, in this case) are caused by "heavy volcanic action?"

If that's the case, you need to display or link to data that shows we're getting heavier volcanic action now than in the past.
snoqueen
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 11613
Joined: Fri Feb 14, 2003 11:42 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Bludgeon » Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:25 pm

Well, it's not a far fetched theory to say that volcanic activity can alter the climate.

Anyway, yeah where are the charts from the 12th century seismologists who were out there by Mt. Etna with the Seismograph, providing us with the accurate and scientifically useful data we need today to determine the meaning of what we perceive as climate change?

Wherever those ancient seismologists are, I'm sure they've done modern climate scientists a favor and recorded the polar ice levels on a yearly basis since the dawn of the Holocene, and made a daily log of the temperature, rainfall, etc on every continent for the past 10,000 years, plus sea level readings to boot.

I mean I hope so. If not for the non-mythical existence of these ardent, meticulous data collectors and record keepers, I mean, the alternative is we would have huge methodological problems and gaping holes in the reliable data we have about the climate.

Which would mean that what we could actually prove about the danger of CO2 or man's theoretical role in climate change, might actually be nothing.
Bludgeon
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1291
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2010 2:27 am

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Sandi » Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:44 pm

snoqueen wrote:Are you saying you think rising sea levels and greater frequency of extreme weather events (hurricanes, in this case) are caused by "heavy volcanic action?"


No, that was in case of catastrophic weather changes, and in response to whomever said "decimate human activity." Also large meteor impact could do the same or worse.
Sandi
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1615
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2005 11:31 pm

Re: Antarctic ice loss greater than any time in last 1,000 y

Postby Galoot » Sun Jun 16, 2013 3:54 pm

Bludgeon, why is it not far-fetched to say that volcanic activity can alter the climate, but it IS far-fetched to say that humans can?

That seems incredibly odd considering that humans put out about 200x more CO2 each year than all the world's volcanoes do.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php

The 35-gigaton projected anthropogenic CO2 emission for 2010 is about 80 to 270 times larger than the respective maximum and minimum annual global volcanic CO2 emission estimates. It is 135 times larger than the highest preferred global volcanic CO2 estimate of 0.26 gigaton per year
Galoot
Forum God/Goddess
 
Posts: 1453
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 1:10 pm

Next

Return to National Politics & Government

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

moviesmusiceats
Select a Movie
Select a Theater


commentsViewedForum
  ISTHMUS FLICKR
Created with flickr badge.

Promotions Contact us Privacy Policy Jobs Newsletters RSS
Collapse Photo Bar