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Wississippi

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Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 5:59 am

http://host.madison.com/wsj/business/co ... 96c3b.html

So now college grads are leaving Wisconsin.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby bleurose » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:22 am

And interestingly, almost every commenter gets exactly why this is happening. Hopefully, this will translate into productive election results by getting rid of all of the backward looking republicans at every level of state "government". Because republicans in office are destroying this state.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby snoqueen » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:35 am

Take heart. The Republican Senate and the Republican House have turned on one another, since they've run out of external enemies to vanquish. On their own they have no idea at all how the legislative process of negotiation is supposed to work, as the rest of us noticed several years ago.

The day of reckoning draws ever closer.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby rabble » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:38 am

My wife and I can't see much improvement coming within our lifetime. Even if the progs take the state back, lock stock and barrel in the next election, it will take ten or fifteen years just to get back where we were before Walker tore it all up. Some of it we'll never get back.

We'll both be retired in a few years. We're thinking maybe the Pacific Northwest. We'll come back to visit but neither of us wants to retire here any more.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:44 am

rabble wrote:My wife and I can't see much improvement coming within our lifetime.


I share your pessimistic view. But I disagree that the Dems couldn't turn things around. Problem is it seems like Repubs have an ironclad hold on the legislature.

I fear WI has fallen into the deep red, hard to reverse that in a state seeing an exodus of educated people.

BTW, I like that consultant's fix quoted in the article: spruce-up Milwaukee so it is more cool like Minneapolis. Ya, that'll work.
Last edited by Huckleby on Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:47 am

Not to spoil a good reason to blame republicans, but:
Each of the past five years, Wisconsin has lost 9,000 residents, ages 21 to 29, with college degrees.


That predates GOP control of the state, and doesn't say anything about the numbers in prior years.

While I think making metropolitan areas that are more attractive to young college grads would help, the fact that the majority of industry in Wisconsin is manufacturing based might say something as well. What percent of manufacturing based jobs require a college degree?

More information would be nice. For example, where are those 9000 people a year relocating too? What field is their degree in? What was their employment status before they moved?
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:00 pm

Huckleby wrote:BTW, I like that consultant's fix quoted in the article: spruce-up Milwaukee so it is more cool like Minneapolis. Ya, that'll work.


This has happened to some extent in the areas around downtown and the east side, but there's that whole geographic region to the north and west of downtown that isn't going to ever see the influx of money needed to make any real changes.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:18 pm

Francis Di Domizio wrote:This has happened to some extent in the areas around downtown and the east side


drops in the bucket

Here's an idea: how about high speed train service linking chicago-milwaukee-Madison-Minneapolis?

I take your point that the rust belt decline predated FitzWalkerstan, but the policies and economic trends are re-enforcing each other.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Kenneth Burns » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:36 pm

Huckleby wrote:I fear WI has fallen into the deep red

It's a swing state. As swinging a swing state as there is. It elected a conservative Republican U.S. Senator in 2010, a liberal Democratic one in 2012.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Francis Di Domizio » Thu Feb 13, 2014 12:49 pm

Huckleby wrote:
Francis Di Domizio wrote:This has happened to some extent in the areas around downtown and the east side


drops in the bucket

Here's an idea: how about high speed train service linking chicago-milwaukee-Madison-Minneapolis?

I take your point that the rust belt decline predated FitzWalkerstan, but the policies and economic trends are re-enforcing each other.


Agreed, Walker can definitely be held accountable for not turning the car around, as well as making some decisions that have actually hurt growth in new industries, but realistically we should have started looking at developing industries that were less manufacturing based at least 20 years ago.

As far as Milwaukee, while there are parts of town I think are very friendly to young professionals, I do agree with your overall assessment. I don't think Milwaukee is going to go the same route as Detroit, but I don't think there is the political will to fix what ails it.

The best bet at this point may be to encourage growth in other metropolitan areas focusing on tech and biomedical industries.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:14 pm

Kenneth Burns wrote:It's a swing state. As swinging a swing state as there is. It elected a conservative Republican U.S. Senator in 2010, a liberal Democratic one in 2012.


U.S. Senators are fine, but quality of life most driven by state legislature. The Repubs seem more in sync w/ voters on local level.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Henry Vilas » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:17 pm

Huckleby wrote:The Repubs seem more in sync w/ voters on local level.

I think it has more to do with gerrymandering.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:23 pm

Henry Vilas wrote:
Huckleby wrote:The Repubs seem more in sync w/ voters on local level.

I think it has more to do with gerrymandering.


Gerrymandering is a factor, certainly. From articles I've been reading lately, it seems that results would not be drastically different with non-partisan districting. There was a great article about a month ago, will try to find a link.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Huckleby » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:28 pm

I'll cut-n-paste article because it is behind pay wall. Article is about congressional gerrymandering, but principles remain the same.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/26/opini ... tupid.html

Don’t Blame the Maps
JAN. 24, 2014

DO the Republicans owe their current congressional majority to gerrymandering? At first glance, it seems self-evident that they do. In the 2012 election, the Democrats won the popular votes for the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. But somehow in the House — for whose seats Republicans controlled the redistricting process in many crucial states — the Republicans managed to end up with a 16-seat majority despite losing the popular vote.

The presumption among many reformers is that the Democrats would control Congress today if the 2012 election had been contested in districts drawn by nonpartisan commissioners rather than politicians.

But is this true? Another possibility is that Democrats receive more votes than seats because so many of their voters reside in dense cities that Democratic candidates win with overwhelming majorities, while Republican voters are more evenly distributed across exurbs and the rural periphery. Perhaps even a nonpartisan redistricting process would still have delivered the House to the Republicans.

To examine this hypothesis, we adapted a computer algorithm that we recently introduced in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. It allows us to draw thousands of alternative, nonpartisan redistricting plans and assess the partisan advantage built into each plan. First we created a large number of districting plans (as many as 1,000) for each of 49 states. Then we predicted the probability that a Democrat or Republican would win each simulated district based on the results of the 2008 presidential election and tallied the expected Republican seats associated with each simulated plan.

The results were not encouraging for reform advocates. In the vast majority of states, our nonpartisan simulations produced Republican seat shares that were not much different from the actual numbers in the last election. This was true even in some states, like Indiana and Missouri, with heavy Republican influence over redistricting. Both of these states were hotly contested and leaned only slightly Republican over all, but of the 17 seats between them, only four were won by Democrats (in St. Louis, Kansas City, Gary and Indianapolis). While some of our simulations generated an additional Democratic seat around St. Louis or Indianapolis, most of them did not, and in any case, a vanishingly small number of simulations gave Democrats a congressional seat share commensurate with their overall support in these states.

The problem for Democrats is that they have overwhelming majorities not only in the dense, poor urban centers, but also in isolated, far-flung college towns, historical mining areas and 19th-century manufacturing towns that are surrounded by and ultimately overwhelmed by rural Republicans.

A motivated Democratic cartographer could produce districts that accurately reflected overall partisanship in states like these by carefully crafting the metropolitan districts and snaking districts along the historical canals and rail lines that once connected the nonmetropolitan Democratic enclaves. But such districts are unlikely to emerge by chance from a nonpartisan process. On the other hand, a Republican cartographer in these and other Midwestern states, along with some Southern states like Georgia and Tennessee, could do little to improve on the advantage bestowed by the existing human geography.

By no means does this imply that critics of gerrymandering are always wrong. In the states most frequently derided as overt Republican gerrymanders, our analysis shows that gerrymandering has indeed given the Republicans additional seats beyond the already pro-Republican average of our simulations. Most notable are North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas and Michigan.

But keep in mind that Democrats play this game as well. For example, by artfully dividing up Chicago into pie-sliced districts extending from Lake Michigan into the suburbs, the Illinois Democrats have done better for themselves than the outcome of our nonpartisan simulations. The Democrats have achieved something similar in Maryland. And in what will come as a surprise to many in the reform community, California’s redistricting commission produced multiple Democratic seats beyond the predictions of our simulations. Evidently the enormous and sophisticated lobbying efforts of California Democrats were successful.

All told, the Republican seat share emerging from the 2012 election exceeds our simulation predictions by only a small handful of seats: not nearly enough to deliver Congress to the Democrats.

In short, the Democrats’ geography problem is bigger than their gerrymandering problem. We do not mean to imply that the absurd practice of allowing incumbents to draw electoral districts should continue. Rather, we suggest that unless they are prepared to take more radical steps that would require a party’s seat share to approximate its vote share, reformers in many states may not get the results they are expecting.

Jowei Chen is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Michigan. Jonathan Rodden, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is a professor of political science at Stanford University.
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Re: Wississippi

Postby Henry Vilas » Thu Feb 13, 2014 2:35 pm

Here is a different opinion on Wisconsin's gerrymandering (not behind a paywall).

Slaying the Gerrymander
The Wisconsin Legislative Reference Bureau maps nonpartisan redistricting
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