If you look at the polls and believe the pundits, what's likely to happen tomorrow is that Scott Walker will survive his recall challenge, but the Democrats will take back one or possibly two seats in the state Senate to regain control of that house of the legislature.
While a Tom Barrett victory would be an upset at this point, there are a couple of things worth watching tomorrow that could make this interesting: turnout in central city Milwaukee, as well as in the 13th Senate District, where Lori Compas is taking on Senate Co-Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald.
Mahlon Mitchell could be the first African American Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin, and get on track to be the first black chief executive of the state. Bill Clinton's visit to Milwaukee last week had to help. It's vote rich territory for Democrats, but turning out those votes is the key.
While no one expects that Compas will beat Fitzgerald, she has already energized the Democratic base in what is usually a solidly Republican district and she's won over some independents and even a few GOP stalwarts like former state Senator Barbara Lorman. It's not a lock that every Compas voter will be a Barrett voter, but there should be a high coincidence.
From what I can tell, the Dems and their allies have done a tremendous job of turning out the vote. (I even got a knock on my door from a neighbor with a clipboard. I assured her that I will vote for the guys whose names are on the sign in my front yard.) According to the information I have, they've knocked on 538,000 doors so far. And if they match turnout with the GOP and the sliver of undecided voters actually decides the race, that's good news for Barrett, because undecideds traditionally break for the challenger.
The most problematic issue for Barrett may wind up being voters who don't like Walker's policies but just don't believe in recalls. Those voters probably believe that recalls should be reserved for criminal wrong-doing, and the John Doe probe of Walker's county executive office aides might not be enough for them.
One thing's for sure. Yogi Berra was right again: "It ain't over 'til it's over."
